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Wild: Playoff Berth or Bubble Team?
The Minnesota Wild posted an impressive 103 points in the 2022-2023 regular season, finishing 3rd in the Central Division. However, their season ended in disappointment, losing in a six-game series to the Dallas Stars in the first round of the playoffs. While the upcoming season presents a chance for redemption, the franchise faces numerous obstacles and questions.
Last Season Recap: Overachievement or Skill?
While the Wild's point total was undoubtedly high, their underlying metrics, as measured by ESBC Power AI, suggest that they should have been a team with around 93 points. This overachievement is largely attributable to exceptional (or, depending on your viewpoint, lucky) goaltending, primarily from Filip Gustavsson, who posted a 93.1% save percentage last season.
Cap Constraints: The Suter-Parise Legacy
The Wild continue to be financially handcuffed due to the contracts of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise, leaving them with limited room to make impactful moves in the offseason. Their primary departure was defender Matt Dumba, while forward Pat Maroon was brought in as an addition. These aren't earth-shattering moves by any stretch, pointing to a season where the core from last year will have to do the heavy lifting again.
Goaltending: A Potential Achilles' Heel
Minnesota will continue with the goaltending tandem of Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury. Given that Gustavsson's stellar numbers last season could be considered an overachievement and the fact that Fleury is nearing 40, goaltending appears to be a significant area of concern. The chances of Gustavsson replicating his last-season form are debatable, and relying on an aging Fleury is risky at best.
Tactical Outlook: The Evason Factor
Dean Evason will return as head coach, providing some continuity. His ability to adapt and make changes, especially in handling key players like Kirill Kaprizov, who was stifled in the playoffs, will be a crucial factor in the team's success or failure this season.
Season Projections: Hanging in the Balance
With the roster more or less stable and the same coaching staff in place, the Wild are looking like a team that will fight tooth and nail for a playoff spot until the season's last games. Given their financial constraints, it is difficult to foresee any mid-season reinforcements that could push them over the edge.
Conclusion
Minnesota Wild fans should brace for a roller-coaster season. The team appears to be balanced on the knife's edge between securing a playoff berth and being a bubble team. Goaltending could tip that balance in either direction. Should Gustavsson fail to replicate his last-season form or should Fleury show signs of age, the Wild may find themselves on the outside looking in when the playoffs come around. Regardless, it promises to be an intriguing season for a team caught in a delicate balancing act.
(Please read our Disclaimer for NHL Team Points Distribution Histograms.)
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