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The Sharks’ Long Game: Rebuilding from the Deep
The San Jose Sharks endured a nightmare 2023-2024 NHL season, finishing as the worst team in the league. With only 19 wins and a meager 47 points, the Sharks struggled across the board. Their goal difference, a staggering -150, encapsulates the season's misery, reflecting a team that not only struggled offensively but was consistently porous defensively. While the numbers were grim, the Sharks’ coaching and roster has undergone changes this offseason in hopes of laying the foundation for a more competitive future.
2023-2024 Recap: Rock Bottom
The Sharks were, by all accounts, the NHL's basement team last season. Their record of 19-60-3 paints the picture of a team in full rebuild mode, or as many in the hockey world would call it, "tanking" for better draft picks.
In terms of advanced metrics, the Sharks were far from competitive. They finished with a league-worst expected goals (xG) differential, a statistic that shows they consistently allowed higher-quality scoring chances while generating very few themselves. By the end of the season, they were ranked as the worst team by ESBC Power AI metrics, which combines various analytical measures to assess team performance comprehensively.
Defensive Struggles: The Sharks’ defense was a glaring weakness. They allowed an alarming number of high-danger chances and finished the season with one of the worst expected goals against (xGA) rates in the league. Although there were slight improvements mid-season in reducing xGA, these gains were offset by the team’s cratering offensive performance.
Offensive Decline Post-Trade Deadline: While the Sharks showed promise in improving their xG numbers during the season, the offensive wheels completely fell off after the trade deadline. With key players like Tomas Hertl and Anthony Duclair traded away, San Jose went into full tank mode. The removal of these assets marked a sharp decline in the team's already limited offensive output. By the end of the season, the Sharks' attack was one of the least productive in the NHL.
A New Era for 2024-2025
The offseason brought major changes for San Jose, both on the ice and behind the bench. The front office clearly signaled that they are playing the long game, but the current roster still has enough new faces to bring a glimmer of competitiveness for 2024-2025.
Notable Departures: A mass exodus of players over the summer included Zadina, Hoffman, Edström, Jack Studnicka, Jacob MacDonald, Kyle Burroughs, Josh Emberson, and goalie Magnus Chrona. While none of these departures represent star talent, some of them were valuable depth pieces, particularly in a season where stability and experience could have offered more consistency.
Key Acquisitions: The Sharks bolstered their lineup with a mix of veterans and young talent. Some of the most notable acquisitions include:
- Alexander Wennberg: The former Kraken center offers solid two-way play but lacks the scoring punch the Sharks desperately need.
- Barclay Goodrow: Goodrow’s return to San Jose gives the team an experienced leader, and his ability to play physically will be a welcome asset.
- Cody Ceci: Brought in to stabilize the defense, Ceci will need to have a strong season if the Sharks hope to improve their defensive metrics. His track record in the previous seasons isn't promising and he we'll likely be a liability in the own zone.
- Jake Walman: A useful piece on the blue line, Walman can help drive play from the back and contribute to offense but he has also some issues in his defensive play
- Tyler Toffoli: By far the biggest name in San Jose’s offseason acquisitions, Toffoli will be expected to carry a significant portion of the scoring load. His veteran presence and goal-scoring ability will be vital to reviving the Sharks' offensive struggles.
- Yaroslav Askarov: A promising young goalie, Askarov is arguably the Sharks’ most exciting acquisition. If he can develop into the top-tier goalie he has been projected to become, San Jose may finally have the franchise goalie they've been missing for years. A season in the AHL is also a possibility, depending on how the training camp goes
Coaching Change: Ryan Warsofsky Takes the Helm
Another major offseason change was the firing of head coach David Quinn. Ryan Warsofsky has now taken over, bringing with him a fresh coaching philosophy aimed at developing younger talent while keeping the Sharks competitive in games. Warsofsky’s tenure with the AHL’s Chicago Wolves showed his ability to maximize young, underdeveloped rosters. Given San Jose’s current position in the NHL's rebuilding cycle, his hiring might have been a smart move for a team focused on future growth.
The Road Ahead: A 2024-2025 Season Focused on Development
While the Sharks have made some intriguing moves, the reality is that they are still expected to struggle in 2024-2025. Another season of rebuilding is likely on the cards, and it’s not unreasonable to expect the Sharks to tank for one more year. This strategy will give them a shot at acquiring top talent in future drafts, further accelerating their rebuild.
A Glimpse of Hope
Despite the team’s projected struggles this season, the Sharks' future looks brighter. Accumulating valuable draft picks, bringing in potential cornerstone players like Yaroslav Askarov, and relying on veterans like Toffoli to guide the younger players suggest the Sharks are laying the groundwork for success down the road.
San Jose’s biggest challenge will be managing expectations and staying focused on long-term goals. Warsofsky’s ability to develop young talent will be crucial as players like William Eklund and Thomas Bordeleau will be given more significant roles. If these young players can take steps forward, and if Askarov can solidify the goaltending position, the Sharks could become a much more competitive team in the seasons to come.
The X-factor are the top picks Will Smith and Macklin Celebrini. There is a possible scenario in which these two could make an impact right this season, but the real fireworks are likely a couple of more seasons away.
In the short term, fans may have to endure another difficult season, but with a clear plan and the potential for a high draft pick, the Sharks are positioning themselves as one of the next powerhouse teams in the NHL.
Sports bettors should pay a close attention to Sharks' training camp and early season. While the mean points estimate for this team is around 70 points, there's plenty of room in the both ends of the distribution.
(Please read our Disclaimer for NHL Team Points Distribution Histograms.)
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