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Can the Rangers Stay Elite After a Stellar 23-24 Season?

The New York Rangers exceeded expectations in the 2023-2024 season, capturing the Presidents’ Trophy with the league’s best regular-season record. Their 114-point campaign was a testament to their consistency and resilience throughout the season, particularly excelling in special teams play. Despite their strong performance, the Rangers' ESBC Power AI metrics indicated they may have slightly overachieved based on their underlying numbers, but they remained one of the league's top teams.

The Rangers' playoff run was equally impressive as they reached the Eastern Conference Finals, where they were eliminated by the eventual Stanley Cup champions, the Florida Panthers. While the season ended in disappointment, the Rangers proved they are a legitimate contender in the NHL with a deep and talented roster, anchored by strong goaltending and a balanced offense.

Offseason Changes:

The Rangers entered the 2024 offseason with a few key departures and acquisitions that are expected to impact the team. Notable players who left include Alex Wennberg, Barclay Goodrow, Jack Roslovic, and Erik Gustafsson. While only Gustafsson played a significant role last season, the exits create opportunities for others to step up and compete for regular roles.

In terms of new arrivals, the Rangers brought in Reilly Smith from Pittsburgh and Sam Carrick from Edmonton. Smith, a versatile forward with championship experience, will add depth and competition to the forward group. Carrick, known for his physicality and energy, will likely provide grit in the bottom-six. These moves strengthen the forward lines without drastically altering the team's core structure.

The Rangers’ goaltending tandem remains unchanged, with Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick returning between the pipes. Shesterkin, one of the top goaltenders in the league, is expected to maintain his elite form, while the 38-year-old Quick will aim to continue as a reliable backup. There’s some concern about Quick’s age, but if he can manage his workload, the Rangers should once again boast one of the best goaltending duos in the NHL.

Head coach Peter Laviolette enters his second year behind the bench, having built a solid foundation in his first season. Laviolette's defensive structure and attention to special teams were key in the Rangers' regular-season success, and his system will be critical as the team looks to replicate that form heading into the new season.

2024-2025 Season Outlook:

The Rangers face the challenge of building on their Presidents' Trophy-winning season while managing the expectations that come with it. According to ESBC Power AI projections, the Rangers are expected to experience some regression, with a projected points total closer to 100. This dip in performance is likely due to their underlying metrics not fully supporting last season’s elite results, as well as the natural difficulty of repeating such high-level success.

Offensively, the Rangers remain well-equipped, with elite players like Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, and Chris Kreider leading the charge. The addition of Reilly Smith adds another dimension to the forward group, but the team’s strength remains its top-end talent and depth. Alexis Lafreniere took a step forward last season, and he might be on the verge of superstardom.

Defensively, losing Gustafsson will hurt, but the Rangers’ core defensemen—Adam Fox, Jacob Trouba, and K’Andre Miller—are still in place, ensuring a stable and effective blue line. Laviolette’s system, which focuses on structure and discipline, will help mitigate any defensive losses, keeping the Rangers a tough team to play against.

Goaltending remains a cornerstone for the Rangers, and Shesterkin’s elite ability will be a major factor in the team’s fortunes. If Shesterkin remains at the top of his game and Quick continues to provide steady backup support, the Rangers will be well-positioned to remain competitive throughout the season.

Conclusion:

The New York Rangers head into the 2024-2025 season with high expectations following their Presidents’ Trophy win and deep playoff run. While a slight regression is expected, they are still among the top teams in the league. However, repeating as regular-season champions and making another deep playoff run will be no easy task. The Rangers have all the tools needed to compete, but the competition at the top is hard.

(Please read our Disclaimer for NHL Team Points Distribution Histograms.)

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