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Fanning the Flames: Calgary’s Rebuild and the Road Ahead
The Calgary Flames, two years removed from the blockbuster trade that sent Matthew Tkachuk to Florida, find themselves in a precarious position heading into the 2024-2025 season. The past two campaigns have seen the Flames fall short of the playoffs, including a disappointing 2023-2024 season in which they finished with 81 points and a -18 goal differential. While there were moments of promise, the team’s overall performance reflected their place in the standings, and any hope of a turnaround will rely on a younger, less experienced roster and a focus on long-term development.
2023-2024 Recap: A Mediocre Season, Fairly Reflected by the Numbers
The Flames' 2023-2024 season was one of mediocrity, marked by inconsistent play and a lack of any sustained momentum. With an 81-point finish, Calgary was firmly outside of the playoff race. Their -18 goal differential reinforced their performance; neither lucky nor unlucky, the Flames were simply not good enough to compete for a postseason spot.
One of the few bright spots for Calgary last season was the performance of newcomer Nazem Kadri. Kadri, signed as a free agent the previous offseason, delivered on expectations and more, leading the team with 75 points. His offensive output provided the Flames with a reliable scoring option and a new centerpiece following the departure of Tkachuk, but it wasn’t enough to carry the team into contention.
However, the trade deadline marked a significant turning point for Calgary. Elias Lindholm, Chris Tanev, and Noah Hanifin were all shipped out in deadline deals, signaling a shift towards a rebuild. As expected, the Flames' performance metrics, including the offensive ESBC Power AI ratings, trended downward after these key departures.
The team’s lack of scoring depth and deteriorating defensive structure were exacerbated by these losses, ultimately sinking any faint hopes of making a late playoff push.
Offseason Departures: Flames Grow Younger and Weaker
The 2024 offseason saw further roster upheaval for Calgary. A number of key players left the team, most notably goaltender Jacob Markström, Andrew Mangiapane, Dillon Dube, A.J. Greer, and Oliver Kylington. Markström’s exit, in particular, marks the end of an era for Calgary's goaltending. The Swedish netminder had been a stalwart for the Flames but saw his performance decline last season, and his departure opens the door for a new era between the pipes.
In return, Calgary did not acquire a wealth of talent. The most notable additions were Anthony Mantha, Jake Bean, and Kevin Bahl, none of whom are expected to drastically shift the team’s fortunes. Mantha, a skilled winger, has had moments of brilliance in his career but has struggled with consistency, while Bean and Bahl are still developing into full-time NHL defensemen. The lack of high-end talent coming in means the Flames are now a younger, weaker team, with a focus on building for the future rather than contending in the immediate term.
Goaltending Future: Dustin Wolf’s Time to Shine?
With Markström now in New Jersey, Calgary’s goaltending situation is in flux. The Flames will enter the season with a tandem of Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar. Of the two, Wolf is the more exciting prospect. He has dominated at the AHL level and is widely regarded as one of the top goaltending prospects in the league. Many within the Flames organization see Wolf as the future of the franchise in net, and it is highly likely he will be given the opportunity to stake his claim as the starting goalie this season.
If Wolf can make a smooth transition to the NHL, he could provide Calgary with a much-needed boost in goal. However, it’s important to temper expectations. As a young goaltender in his first full NHL season, Wolf will likely face challenges, particularly behind a weakened defense.
Defensive Concerns: A Weakened Corps
One of the most significant challenges head coach Ryan Huska will face in his second year behind the bench is managing a depleted defense. The departures of Chris Tanev and Noah Hanifin leave significant holes in Calgary’s defensive corps. While Huska is familiar with the Flames' system—having served as an assistant coach for five years before his promotion—he now faces a tougher task in getting this group to perform at a high level.
The Flames’ defense will rely heavily on less experienced players and the likes of Rasmus Andersson and MacKenzie Weegar to step up. While Andersson and Weegar are capable defensemen, the overall depth and quality of the blue line have taken a hit. This lack of defensive depth, combined with the relatively inexperienced Wolf in goal, makes it difficult to envision Calgary maintaining a strong defensive front, particularly against more established teams in the Western Conference.
Offensive Core: Kadri Shines, but Depth is a Concern
Offensively, the Flames will continue to lean on Nazem Kadri, who was a rare bright spot in an otherwise disappointing campaign. Kadri’s 75-point season gave Calgary much-needed production, and he remains a key part of the team’s forward core heading into 2024-2025. However, with the departure of Mangiapane and Dube, the Flames are short on reliable secondary scoring options.
The hope is that Jonathan Huberdeau, who had a down year, can bounce back and regain some of the form that made him one of the NHL's top playmakers. Calgary will also look for further development from players like Jakob Pelletier but there are no guarantees that these young forwards will be able to fill the offensive gaps left by departing veterans.
2024-2025 Outlook: A Rebuilding Year
The upcoming 2024-2025 season is likely to be a rebuilding year for Calgary. The team has shed some of its veteran core in favor of younger players and prospects, but this transition period means the Flames will likely struggle to compete for a playoff spot. Much will depend on the performance of Dustin Wolf in goal, the ability of the younger players to step into larger roles, and whether the remaining veterans can maintain their production. At the trade deadline, the Flames will likely be sellers once again.
Head coach Ryan Huska will be tasked with overseeing this transition, but the expectations are understandably low. Calgary’s weakened roster, especially on defense, combined with the challenges of integrating a young goalie, makes a playoff push unlikely. However, this season will be crucial for the development of players like Wolf, Bahl, Zary, Coronato, Pelletier, and others, as they form the foundation for the Flames’ future.
Conclusion: Patience Required for Flames’ Rebuild
After missing the playoffs for the second consecutive year following the Matthew Tkachuk trade, the Calgary Flames are fully in rebuild mode. The 2024-2025 season will be one of transition, with younger players stepping into more prominent roles and the team relying on the development of prospects like Dustin Wolf. While short-term success seems unlikely, the Flames’ long-term prospects could brighten if their young talent progresses as expected. For now, patience is required as the Flames navigate this period of uncertainty and work towards building a new competitive core.
The most likely scenario is that the Flames drop around 10 points this season to a 70-point ballpark.
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