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Ducks in Transition: Youth Takes Flight Amid Growing Pains
The Anaheim Ducks entered the 2023-2024 NHL season with tempered expectations, and unfortunately for fans, the team largely delivered on those low predictions. Finishing the season with 59 points, the Ducks managed to avoid the basement of the standings, but only barely. With significant challenges on both sides of the puck, Anaheim struggled to find consistency, especially when it came to preventing goals. As the Ducks look ahead to 2024-2025, the key to any potential improvement lies in the development of their young core, though it seems like another season of rebuilding is in store.
2023-2024 Recap: A Season of Defensive Struggles
The Ducks were as bad as expected last season, finishing near the bottom of the NHL standings with 59 points. Only the San Jose Sharks had a worse record, and Anaheim's defensive numbers were alarmingly poor. The Ducks allowed an expected goals against (xGA) rate of 3.3 per game, a mark surpassed only by the Sharks. This advanced metric highlights just how consistently vulnerable Anaheim was in its defensive zone, often giving up high-danger scoring chances and struggling to limit quality opportunities.
One of the Ducks' primary issues was their inability to stay disciplined. They took a significant number of penalties, which exacerbated their defensive woes. Compounding this problem was their poor penalty kill percentage. When your team is frequently down a man and struggling to kill off penalties, it becomes nearly impossible to build any positive momentum in games. Anaheim consistently found themselves chasing, a pattern that doomed them to one of the league's worst records.
Offensive Sparks, Defensive Frustrations
While the Ducks had their fair share of defensive issues, there were some positive developments offensively. Winger Frank Vatrano had a standout season, leading the team with 37 goals and 60 points. However, a closer look at his underlying metrics suggests that Vatrano may have overachieved. His shooting percentage and goal-scoring numbers outpaced his expected output, meaning that a regression in production is likely next season.
On the defensive side, Anaheim found hope in young blueliner Pavel Mintyukov. Despite the Ducks’ overall struggles, Mintyukov showed flashes of his potential, handling tough matchups and gaining valuable experience. The young defenseman was often thrown into difficult situations, but the experience should help him take a step forward in the future. His development will be crucial for a team that needs to shore up its defensive play if they are to become more competitive.
Goaltending was another area of frustration for Anaheim. Veteran netminder John Gibson had a challenging season, and while he's been a backbone for the team in years past, his performance declined. Backup goalie Lukas Dostal, who played in fewer games, actually posted a 1.4% better save percentage than Gibson. Whether this trend continues into the new season could become a storyline to watch, as the Ducks might eventually need to transition to Dostal as their primary goalie if Gibson’s struggles persist.
Roster Changes: New Faces, but Will They Make a Difference?
Anaheim made some notable roster moves over the offseason, but none of them are likely to cause a significant shift in the team’s fortunes. On the departure side, the Ducks lost forwards Ben Myers, Bo Groulx, Glenn Gawdin, Max Jones, and defenseman Robert Hagg. None of these players were considered core pieces, so their exits won’t drastically impact the team’s performance.
In terms of additions, the Ducks brought in veterans Brian Dumoulin and Robbie Fabbri, players who can add depth but likely won’t move the needle significantly. Dumoulin’s experience will help steady the young defensive core, while Fabbri’s offensive versatility could prove useful, though injuries have limited his consistency in recent seasons. Additionally, the Ducks acquired young forward Cutter Gauthier in a trade last season. He will now get the opportunity to play a full season with the team, adding another young talent to their growing pool of prospects.
The Young Core: The Key to the Ducks' Future
For Anaheim, any potential improvement will depend on the development of their young core. The Ducks have several promising young players, including Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry, Mason McTavish, and top prospect Leo Carlsson. These players have the talent to form the foundation of the next competitive Ducks team, but they are still very much in the development phase.
Trevor Zegras, the team's most electrifying player, continues to flash elite playmaking skills, but he needs to round out his game to become a more complete player. Troy Terry has emerged as a reliable scorer, but Anaheim will need even more from him if they hope to be more competitive. Mason McTavish, who showed glimpses of his potential last season, is expected to take on a larger role in 2024-2025, while Carlsson, the second-overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, is viewed as a potential franchise cornerstone.
The big question for Anaheim is whether this young core can take a collective step forward in their development during the upcoming season. While it's possible that Zegras, Terry, McTavish, and Carlsson all have breakout years at the same time, that scenario is unlikely. Realistically, the Ducks are still a year or two away from becoming a legitimate playoff contender. However, if these young stars can show tangible progress, the future will look bright for Anaheim.
2024-2025 Outlook: More Growing Pains Ahead
As the Ducks head into the 2024-2025 season, the expectation is that they will still struggle to compete in a tough Western Conference. Head coach Greg Cronin returns behind the bench and will be tasked with overseeing the continued development of the team's young talent. Cronin’s challenge will be finding ways to extract more from this group while managing a roster that is still far from complete.
The biggest hurdle for Anaheim remains their defensive play. If they can improve their defensive structure and get better goaltending, it’s possible they could avoid finishing near the bottom of the standings again. However, without significant improvement in these areas, another challenging season is likely on the horizon.
Conclusion: Patience Required
The Anaheim Ducks are a team in transition, and while they have some promising pieces in place, patience will be required as their young core continues to develop. The addition of veteran players like Dumoulin and Fabbri should provide stability, but the real focus will be on how players like Zegras, Terry, McTavish, and Carlsson progress over the course of the season.
For Ducks fans, the hope is that 2024-2025 brings signs of growth and progress, even if the team remains far from playoff contention. The rebuild is ongoing, and while there’s light at the end of the tunnel, it will likely take another season or two before Anaheim is ready to compete at a higher level.
The early expectations for this team are very similar to San Jose Sharks, as seen in the graph below.
(Please read our Disclaimer for NHL Team Points Distribution Histograms.)
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