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Third day in row: small risk, small profit
On the two first days of the Royal Meeting, we have made small profits with small risks on the ColossusBets placepots. With the same strategy, we'll bet on day three. Today there is no rollover, "only" a boosted €10.000 up for grabs, but in practice, the expected payback-percentage will be today about the same as on Tuesday and Wednesday. We expect the public to add some "extra" losing money in the pool by betting "random" outsiders against our solid selections.
Our selections look quite strong. The "easy" combinations in the ColossusBets Placepot offer good value even if their dividends look tiny. Yesterday the CossusBets Placepot paid £105.18 for £1, even if the odds against it (via the most probable placed horses) were closer to the 50-1 mark. The Tote Placepot paid something like 85-1.
I remember a case in the Finnish Pick Seven when we bet 20000 times one single combination as a part of our overall position with over a million lines in the other, wilder seven-horse-combos. So a Colossus Bets placepot line paying £8 and hitting once in five tries offers as good value as a Pick Six Jackpot combo paying out £800.000 and hitting once in half a million tries. But the placepot predisposes the bettor under much less variance. Therefore one can bet good placepot combos quote aggressively - especially with an option to hedge the last race with ColossusBets cashout-option or laying at the exchanges.
When betting optimally on this kind of Placepot round, one needs to be bold by not betting too many combinations. The net return suffers from each extra line one bets. On other hand, one should be prepared for one "unexpected" favorite fall in six races. Therefore, we quite often bet the "core" ticket with the biggest stake and then accept one leg to go for a less profitable B-horse just for risk management purposes, betting that kind of lines with smaller stakes.
Today we'll bet in the ColossusBets placepot the following combinations:
6xA
5xA + B
The groups today are as follows:
Race 1: A: 10,7 B: 1
Race 2: A: 14,5,3
Race 3: A 3 B: 6,2
Race 4: A: 5,3
Race 5: A: 18,6,14,8
Race 6: A: 6 B: 1
PS. The sporting highlight for the day is the over 200 years old Gold Cup, where the legendary three times winner Stradivarius meets a potential new stayer champion, Kyprios, who is good, improving four-year-old. Kyprios should not be bothered by the longest distance race in his career, because the pace in the race should be slow. But I do not have the heart to bet against one of my all-time favorites, old fighter Stradivarius. So I'll include the both horses in most of my ColossusBets placepot syndicates.
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