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Royal Ascot, betting ideas based on the Auren Ratings
Ascot, Friday the 18th of June 2021.
Thoughts for the ColossusBets Placepot and P4-jackpot rollovers
We have researched these races carefully because there is dead money in the ColossusBets placepot and we’ll invest there. The ideas can be used for the other betting markets too.
1st. leg:
The improvement potential is the decisive factor in this race. Nobody knows for sure, so no strong opinions. We cover this wide in some of the syndicates behind the favorite 106 Flotus. She is not guaranteed to unbeatable only by a Goodwood maiden win. Her numbers were not exceptional. It is quessing game, who improves most.
- leg:
206 The Mediterrenean has clearly better Auren rating than the favorite 202 Alenquer. He offers better value, but both are included in a big percentage of our ColosussusBets placepot positions. According to our figures, 203 Belloccio and 208 Yabir have at least as good a chance as 207 Title, which we underweight in our positions.
- leg:
Of the market leaders, 321 Suesa and 303 Dragon Symbol have a better risk/reward-ration than 313 Campanelle, which seems to lure in ”crowd-money” support. In placepots, one needs to take a stand somewhere, so we exclude many good, improving outsiders here and have mainly Suesa (overweight) and Dragon Symbol (slight overweight) in our ColossusBets placepot-syndicates. In the ColossusBets, Pick4 rollover one can have more horses combined with the market leaders in the remaining legs.
-
leg:
Here our Auren-figures have the biggest difference with the Jockey Club Official Ratings and the market, so we need to bet accordingly. 401 Alcohol Free was beaten by 406 Mother Earth in the 1000 Guineas, but our numbers say, that she is an almost as good filly and with the expected percentage of the ColossusBet combinations bet, Alcohol Free should offer better value. However, the nature of the placepot forces us to use Mother Earth a lot in our syndicates. And the same applies with 110 Pretty Gorgeous, too.
-
leg:
Lots of question marks over the best Auren-rating-horses in this tricky fillies handicap. It pays to cover wide, especially in the P4-jackpot. In this market, we have scooped many times with only one realistic outsider. In the placepot, one should remain slightly more conservative. But for example, virtually unbacked 507 Star Of Emeraaty is not that many Auren-point worse than the current favorite 506 Create Belief, so in a very strongly run race, Star of Emeraaty will pass many near to the post.
With a slower pace-scenario, 518 Pomelo has a better than a 5% chance. Her figures are not good enough yet, but she might improve and she will get a suitable trip here.
6.leg:
619 Sam Cooke is according to the Auren-numbers the best of the favorite-trio, so he deserves more weight than 613 Quickthorn and 609 Aaddeey in the ColossusBets placepots. But I would not lay 602 Zabeel Champion and 605 Raymond Tusk on their current prices, 11-1 respective 25-1. They both have competitive Auren figures. Raymond Tusk might get an impossible trip, but Zabeel Champion has more tactical options. We’ll buy a lottery ticket for Zabeel Champion on a market, where he seems to offer the best value.
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