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Is a quick return to racing an advantage?
Yesterday we had a low risk, good profitability position in the ColossusBets Royal Ascot day one rollover. We ended up making a decent profit. Today the ColossusBets placepot doesn't look as good, but it offers a smaller expected profit, thank for the extra rollover money.
We have chosen to do or die today with Nahanni in the second leg. We'll play about as many lines through him as we play via the favorite Eldar Eldarov.
Nahanni is the best horse on the field - and by our numbers with a clearer margin, than our competitors claim.
Nahanni was literally shot out from the Epsom Derby one and a half weeks ago. For some reason, the organizers decided to fire fireworks just before the Derby start! Nahanni got nervous (as many other horses with lesser degree) and missed the break. The race was lost, even if Nahanni ran decently.
There are speculations, that Nahanni comes back to races too early after the Derby. Might be, yes. But the odds are on our side, when we bet, that Charlie Appleby, one of the best trainers in the racing history, knows, what he is doing. According to our research, a race after a short interval is a PLUS for a horse providing the horse has had not too many races in the last two months, is physically sound, and trained by an operator with good statistics from comparable situations with short intervals between races.
Every betting decision is a unique one. The research findings do not guarantee anything. Nahanni might collapse and everybody would shout: "That's what I said". But if wet bet 1000 similar situations, we would beat the market. So the die is cast.
Placepot is not an optimal bet for a second favorite with a slightly polarized performance distribution. Therefore we include the favorite Eldar Eldarow in our placepot position and increase our risk with an each-way-bet.
In the ColossusBets placepot, it is very important not to bet too many outsiders on the same ticket. On other hand, the lines including too many second, third and fourth favorites are too popular and pay too low dividends compared to the chance of hitting. And one sacrifices value by betting against the favorites in too many legs. The placepot pays the same sum via the favorite and a fourth favorite if they both place among the first three.
Our key to our million winnings and yearly profits since 1979 in the racing pools betting has been reduced systems, where one combines an optimal number of favorites with an optimal number of less fancied horses.
The most profitable lines in the placepot are quite often the ones consisting of 4-5 favorites and 1-2 less fancied horses. One can create that kind of position by accepting the small work of spreading the bets to a couple of coupons. We call our strongest selections as A. Contenders with a decent win probability but with limited profitability are B. The live outsiders = C.
Today we'll bet in the ColossusBets placepot the following combinations:
6xA
5xA + B
4xA+2xB
The groups today are as follows:
Race 1: A: 3,10 B: 12 6,8,1,17
Race 2: A: 7,4
Race 3: A 1 B: 2,3
Race 4: A: 3,5,1
Race 5: A: 24,27,9 B: 6,26
Race 6: A: 12 B: 2,1,10,15,6
If you want to bet very optimally, you can increase the stakes for the groups including 5 A-horses.
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