A profitable, low risk royal placepot
ColossusBets Placepot is a definite plus expected value bet on Royal Ascot, day one.
Last weekend one of our P8 1-x-2 football syndicates won €11501 with a €24 stake. That ticket had a very good +EV along with many other of my optimized syndicates, which did not get as lucky. Under my Vuoksenmaa – ESBC account we bet only syndicates, which offer +EV value, and we have shown a profit each year since 2017.
The winning and losing runs can get very long in the combination bets like P8 1-x-2 or placepot. One should bet frequently and disciplined, but only very small portions of the available risk capital each round.
The good things with today's Royal Ascot ColossusBets placepot are, that it is a rollover, and it can be hedged with profitable each-way-bets.
In the first race, Baaeed, one of the all-time great milers will place barring an injury or hidden illness. We bet all our placepot-syndicates via Baaeed. However, there are about 3-5% risk for the previously named ”racing base risks” to be realized. Therefore we place a very small each-way-bet on Real World. If something unforeseen happens to Baaeed, we cash the Real World -bet on a price 8-1 or something. If Baaed runs normally and wins with a couple of lengths, the favorite case is, that Real World is second and shows profit with the place part of our each-way. And if Baaed happened to have a ”semi-bad-day-at-the-office” and were beaten only by Real World, we would hit the jackpot: winning both parts of the each-way and staying alive in the placepot with Baaeed.
The same logic applies with Coroebus in the fourth leg. We are great fans of Coroebus and Charlie Appleby, and to have Coroebus as a naked banker might probably be the decision to optimize the expected profit from the Placepot. But a risk-adjusted Sharpe-ratio for the total position goes up if we’ll have a small hedge each-way on My Prospero.
In the ColossusBets placepot, it is very important not to bet too many outsiders on the same ticket. On other hand, the lines including too many second, third and fourth favorites are too popular and pay too low dividends compared to the chance of hitting. And one sacrifices value by betting against the favorites in too many legs. The placepot pays the same sum via the favorite and a fourth favorite if they both place among the first three.
Our key to our million winnings and yearly profits since 1979 in the racing pools betting has been reduced systems, where one combines an optimal number of favorites with an optimal number of less fancied horses.
The most profitable lines in the placepot are quite often the ones consisting of 4-5 favorites and 1-2 less fancied horses. One can create that kind of position by accepting the small work of spreading the bets to a couple of coupons. We call our strongest selections as A. Contenders with a decent win probability but with limited profitability are B. The live outsiders = C.
Today we'll bet in the ColossusBets placepot the following combinations:
5xA + B
5xA + C
The groups today are as follows:
Race 1: A: 2
Race 2: A: 10,2 B: 1,3 C: 5,11
Race 3: A 5,12 B: 10,7 C: 17,8,6
Race 4: A: 6
Race 5: A: 13 B: 7 C: 8,1,6
Race 6: A: 9,1,13,8 B: 7,3,5
If you want to bet very optimally, you can increase the stakes for the groups including 5 A-horses, and reduce slightly the stakes for the last group 4xA+B+C.
PS. Please note ColossusBets placepot is from race 1 to 6 as usual.