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Onnekkaasti etsimään ja iskemään
Saksalainen Twitter-seuraajani kysyi viime viikolla ESBC:n NHL-vihjeistä. Tuo kaveri, Michael Schlebush sattuu kannattamaan Fortuna Düsseldorfia. Vastatessani Michaelille katsoin ohimennen, ketä vastaan Fortuna pelaa seuraavaksi.
Hälytys!
Vastustaja olisi Greuter Fürth - Düsseldorfin arvostetun managerin Mike Buskensin viime vuonna erottanut seura.
Tiikerin vaistoni heräsivät. Olisiko tässä saalis?
Aloin tutkia ottelua.
Pystyn nykyisessä ESBC:n "Etsi ja Iske"-toimintatavassa tarvittaessa irroittamaan jopa yhden työtunnin yhteen otteluun. Ajan voi käyttää tuottavasti minun ja ESBC-asiakkaiden hyödyksi, kun aikaa ei haaskaannu 500 muun viikon ottelun perkaamiseen - ja johtopäätöksen "kertoimet kohdallaan, ei peliä" varmentamiseen.
Työtunti lensi kuin siivillä. Huumassa. Tästä nautin. Ja päädyin lopputulokseen:
(lue muuten ajatuksella läpi perusteluni yhteen syksyn suurimmista vedoistani. Ajattelutapani saattaa antaa oppia Sinunkin peliajatteluusi).
Katso tästä tuote kokonaisuudessaan
Düsseldorf 1 (DNB) 1.90 (stake 8/10).
- DNB means "draw no bet". You will get your stake back if the match end as a draw.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf is a good bet in the majority of other forms of betting, too, with the majority of bookmakers.
- The 90 min. 1-x-2-distribution is something like 43 - 28 - 29.
- Both sides got relegated from 1. Bundesliga last season.
- However, Düsseldorf was by far the better side of these two last season compared by points, goal difference, key statistics or by impression they gave.
- Greuter Fürth lost much more key players after relegation than Fortuna.
- With that evidence the verdict is clear: Düsseldorf is the stronger side of these two even if the leaque table misleads to believe the opposite.
- Even the home advantage for Düsseldorf is better than is the general belief.
- Düsseldorf has a very loud and loyal home support regardless if they are doing well or badly. Even when the team was in complete chaos in 3. liga they had over 20.000 spectators. Greuter Fuhrt is by far worse on the road than home even if they did not win a single home match last seson in 1. Liga.
- Then here comes the main issue: The Düsseldorf trainer Mike Buskens.
- Buskens is a very good coach. He was a headcoach for Schalke 04 a long period and after that he took Greuter Furth to 1. Bundesliga. He could not make wine from water with a very limited budget and was one of the 3 trainers the (not so clever) Fürth-organization sacked inside 1 year.
- For these reasons, Buskens has an extra motivation to avenge now with Düsseldorf to the previous club which treated him unfairly. Buskens is a born in Düsseldorf, has played for Fortuna and and is the God for the local fans.
- The emotion in this huge match creates extra pressure for Buskens, but he can handle it. Buskens has won as a player UEFA-cup with Schalke 04.
- Greuter Fürth new trainer Frank Kramer has not so far given any evidence to be a top trainer even if Fürth has taken a few points more than expected at the start of this season.
- There is nothing special on the lineups. Fürth fields a good side. Düsseldorf have had slight injury worries at the early matches. The are able to play some of the former absentees now. However that is only a bonus, not the main reason for our decent sized bet.
- When placing a big bet, you should always know the reason behind the edge and a "too-good-looking" odds you get.
- Here the reasons are: 1) The market does not understand the reasons we gave deeply enough (or not at all) 2) The people have overreacted to the Fürth's impressive 4-0 win vs. Dynamo Dresden.
- Some popular and well marketed "gurus" advice their customers to bet Greuter Fürth. That is another good reason to bet on Düsseldorf.
- Bet as soon as possible. The Public will keep betting Fürth but some sharp guys in our network will increase their stakes on Düsseldorf, so the odds for Düsseldorf is more likely to drop than rise.
- The bet in the title-field (Düsseldorf 1.90 Draw no bet) was placed at 3 PM GMT on Monday.
- Actually this investment should be given you as "ESBC Perfect Bet". However, we will allow everybody to have a chance to get feel of the ESBC new "Seek and Destroy" philospohhy and the edge it gives us, so you get the real value here with very good terms.
- This bet is a random event with an advantage and risk. Before placing this bet decide, if it is a +EV good bet or not. Think how much you can afford to lose, mentaly and economically. Expect the bet to be lost and go through how you will feel after it has been lost. If you feel you might be disappointed and start to serch for reasons to second-guess the bet after the bet is lost, do not bet or co-operate with ESBC.
- However, thank you for your trust on ESBC, good luck and enjoy the game on Eurosport2 !
Löin vedon.
Kerroin käyttäytyi odotetusti: nousi ensin vähän, kun suuri yleisö pelasi tasaisesti Fürthia ja putosi lopuksi, kun viisaat pelaajat tiesivät saavansa maksimaalien kertoimen Düsseldorfista ja tulivat sisään.
Maanantain tapahtumien kulku kuvaa käytännön tasolla, kuinka suuren hyödyn ESBC:n asiakkaana saat uudesta "Etsi ja Iske"-toimintatavastamme. 8/10-panostuksia voi tehdä varmoin mielin, kun ottelua on ollut aikaa tutkia syvällisistä näkökulmista.
Minulla on ollut 40 vuotta käsittämättömän hyvä onni, ja se on tarttunut myös ESBC:n asiakkaisiin.
Düsseldorf käänsi pelin todella onnekkaasti, täysin pelitapahtumien vastaisesti 0-1 tappiosta 2-1 voitoksi.
ESBC:n asiakkaat voittivat paljon rahaa.
Jorma Vuoksenmaa
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