One million - in four years
I placed my 2002nd bet in "My Way" -mission this night before Midsummer. Now the ROI per bet in the experiment is 106%. I have doubled the starting capital and with this kind of accumulation, I'll reach my goal of reaching one million in four years.
Well, IF we'll keep that pace of the capital growth. It is obvious, that nobody can keep the net profit per bet at 6% with a sufficient number of bets. It is much better to have 10.000 bets at an ROI of 101% than 500 bets at 103%. Actually, all-in arbitrage positions with 0,5% sure profit would be the most welcomed betting opportunities, even if they hurt the ROI per bet.
It is all about the circulation of capital. We don't buy bread from the supermarket with ROI but with money, which we earn by letting the capital go around as fast as possible with a decent edge per bet.
In the My Way -mission we are still in the phase of learning. We don't know yet, how profitable are the different sports, markets, and leagues. Until we know, where our edge is as biggest, we stake very conservatively.
It is good that I have been cautious. In the beginning, my very first bets were lucky. Then I faced a run, which took almost 20% of my risk capital, but after 1000 first my ROI per bet was double-digit. The cold mid-May dropped my capital downwards, but the last weekend of May and the start of June took me to a new all-time high. I reached that milestone on the 8th of June - only for one day.
The huge drawdown started on Thursday the 9th of June. That night the very same baseball-betting strategies, which have accumulated my capital for many years, produced almost entirely losing bets.
Baseball is now the only sport where I have lost in the My Way -mission. The MLB return is now 99% per bet. After a dream start, two unchanged "killer" strategies have produced almost entire losers. I am very confident with my tested Baseball ideas and keep betting with them - with reduced stakes.
Another reason for this current drawdown is a couple of big bets, which lost.
IFK Helsingfors had started the Finnish Veikkausliiga season very badly. There were logical reasons behind that. But I believed that the nations League break in the game schedule and IFK's the public plea of getting the public to buy tickets and "fight with the team" would give a psychological boost for HIFK. In addition, the class difference between HIFK and the evens away favorite, VPS Vaasa was not as big as the betting market thought - I believed.
Little did I know. HIFK was on the ropes from the very beginning under the active and aggressive VPS. The match was lost in 15 minutes. IFK started the second half better, but their 1-2 goal was nullified by a simple mistake, which led to a 1-3 score. That killed IFK's hope and spirit. 1-5 final score did not accurately show the difference between the teams, but
my estimate to have VPS as only a slight favorite was wrong. And it cost me money.
I believed HIFK was one of the best bets in three years. I have nominated over 40 comparable, published "Vuoksenmaa-quality-bets" during this period, and they have returned an astonishing 22% net profit per bet (even with that HIFK catastrophe included). But that particular match played in light midnight was dark for me, because I staked a lot.
However, the teams look different on different days. Now last Wednesday, on the next Veikkausliiga round IFK won away at Tampere vs. Ilves and returned the stakes 8x. I bet IFK with Asian Handicaps and under, but with much smaller stakes than on the previous round.
Well, win some, lose some. My Way is a bumpy ride. But after a lazy summer, which we'll spend in the information intake mode, we'll be ready for a very profitable Autumn. then we'll make a big number of bets and create a fast turnaround of capital. So far in My Way we have kept the best margins in the Premier League and NHL. Then those leagues ended, and our ROI per bet dropped.
I guess our ROI per bet will be in the long run something like 5%.
We have kept ca. 3% historically, and with the Sportmarket brokerage service, the expected profit for my best bets might reach 5%, because we get now always the best odds in the best possible market among the serious bookmakers. But I do not expect to earn more equity per bet than 5 % in the future. That is enough to reach one million in four years.
What is "My Way"?
I designated an account in Sportmarket ear-marked only for this project. I deposited there €800 + €800 in February and then €800 every month. I started to bet in the same very defensive, risk-averse way, as I did when I was young. I write regular blogs on our web page www.esbc.fi, where I follow, how this experiment/mission/challenge progresses. I call this mission MyWay.
Follow MyWay! It is not only my twists and turns in this mission, not only nostalgia from my first way towards my first million. You'll learn a lot about betting strategies, my way of thinking and working, risk management, war stories" and nostalgia. Occasionally you'll learn how to win +EV equity in upcoming sporting events for free.
Welcome to join me in MyWay!