Kategoria: Blogi

New Newmarket superstars and rollovers

New Newmarket superstars and rollovers

The heaven for racing enthusiasts continues on Sunday. After seeing Coroebus beat two other future champions Native Trail and Luxembourgh in the historically good 2000 Guineas on Saturday, the world-top fillies fight today in 1000 Guineas. Sunday is an exceptional day even in betting: ColossusBets offers three extra-money pools, where one can find hundreds of profitable combinations. They are good bets for syndicates.

In the 1000 Guineas, our figures say, that 7 Malawath is not that much after the O'Brien well-backed 11 Tenebrism and 12 Tuesday. The two Irish stars might have more improvement potential, but Malawath is better value betting-wise. As I wrote yesterday in my 2000 Guineas blog, I like to take more risky positions in the best races. Therefore I give more weight on 7 Malawath in my ColossusBets positions than her share on the lines bet via her would suggest.

The fillies' races are in general more prone to upsets compared to the male races. In the 1000 Guineas, The first three look strong, but not as dominating as the three best yesterday in the 2000 Guineas. Therefore, I even include 1 Ameynah for my position as a C-horse (which will be included in tickets with favorites elsewhere).

In the ColossusBets racing pool bets, it is very important not to bet too improbable combinations. Therefore one should combine an optimal number of favorites with an optimal number of less fancied horses. It helps a lot if one can find a solid, good favorite as a banker. Then one can serac good profitable, under-bet outsiders in the other races without bearing the risk, that the combinations would jump over the acceptable threshold of the probability to hit. It doesn't help, if all the horses in the winning combination are +EV, if the line itself is so improbable, that even the whole pool doesn't reward the risk.

Today 3 Crenelle in the third leg of ColossusBets Placepot and Jackpot serves as my banker, and I am quite happy to bear risks with her. The beautiful, elegant filly impressed me intuitively when winning her Craven meeting race. The figures she run supported the "feeling" that she would develop to be a top-class filly.

So with 3 Crenelle we need only 3 more favorites to have a chance to cash. At least in placepot we should be in good shape only with being "right" with Cranelle. The most profitable lines in the six-race pools are quite often the ones consisting of 4-5 favorites and 1-2 less fancied horses. One can create that kind of position by accepting the small work of spreading the bets to a couple of coupons. We call our strongest selections as A. Contenders with a decent win probability but with limited profitability are B. The live outsiders = C.

Today we'll bet in the ColossusBets jackpot and placepot the following combinations:

6xA

5xA + B,C

4xA+2xB

4xA+B+C

If one wants to be mathematically accurate, the optimal placepot strategy differs slightly from the best jackpot strategy, and the horses would have been selected and grouped slightly differently in those two forms of pools betting. However, in this simple demonstration, I want to keep the lesson simple. I'll explain more detailed ideas in my future blogs.

So the groups today are as follows:

Race 1: A: 2 B: 1,6

Race 2: A: 10,6 B: 3: C: 9,1,7

Race 3: A 3

Race 4: A B:7,3,5

Race 5: A: 7 B:11,4 C:1

Race 6: A: 6,2: B: 7 C: 1

Ps. Happy First of May! Enjoy the great sport and good luck!

ESBC:n kanssa enemmän iloa vedonlyönnistä

ESBC:n voittamisen resepti perustuu Suomen tunnetuimman vedonlyöntisijoittajan Jorma Vuoksenmaan tutkimustuloksiin ja yli 30 voitollisen vuoden kokemukseen vedonlyönnistä. Jorma Vuoksenmaa ja ESBC:n työntekijät pelaavat samaan analyysiin perustuen samoja kohteita kuin asiakkaamme.

ESBC:n sivustolta peliharrastajat ja -sijoittajat saavat ajankohtaiset sijoitusneuvot vedonlyöntiin. ESBC ylläpitää kykyään parantaa asiakkaittensa menestystä yliopistotasoisella tutkimuksella pelisijoittamisesta ja urheilusta.

 

Uutiset ja blogitekstit RSS-syötteenä