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New champion, old champion; how to bet?
New champion, old champion; how to bet?
The glorious days at Cheltenham continue. Day two delivers top sport in all races. The icing of the cake is Shishkin, of course, but it is good to see the old champion Tiger Roll trying to win The Glenfarclas Chase fourth time in his career. ColossusBets offers good rollovers in Placepot and Jackpot! What a day!
Race 1:In the first leg, there is a risk for a fast pace. That would not be an advantage for 6 Sir Gerhard. However, he will keep improving, and his Auren rating is already superior to his opponents. (Auren-rating is our private handicap-rating based heavily on speed- and pace. It carries the name of the late Jussi Auren, my co-researcher, who passed away two years ago). At the moment (9.50 GMT) Sir Gerhard is 8 to 11 on favorite and hardly a value bet, but on ColossusBets rollovers he deserves overweight in order to keep the degrees of difficulty on the 6-fold-combos reasonable.3 I Am Maximus has almost 10% win probability and is a good lottery ticket for the Jackpot in some coupons with the well-backed horses in the other legs.
Race2:The projected hard pace might give 4 Capodanno a perfect trip behind the leaders. He made a mistake and unseated his rider last time, but that doesn’t worry us. Normally Capodanno jumps well and offers today extra value. He is an improving horse and wins this with ca. 12% probability. However, the race is open, and in the ColossusBets pools, wide coverage is needed in the tickets with the best ideas and the favorites in the other legs.
Race 3:A very open handicap hurdle, where many markings are a must. When everything is taken into consideration, 19 Camprond may turn out to be a value bet. He has about 12% probability to win.
Race 4:We spotted the championship-class of 7 Shishkin very early in his career and have kept betting him loyally even on the skinny prices. We'll have him as a banker in almost all of our tickets today.
Race 5:Even 15 Tiger Roll has been a bread-provider and a ”fan-club-horse” for us. But we all get old, and because the emotions should be isolated from the betting decisions, we need to leave Tiger Roll underweight in our ColossusBets syndicates. The old champions lure fan-bets with their reputation, and the day, when they will not return to their level is unavoidable. I hope all the best for Tiger Roll but try to win in the ColossusBets pools with the Bolger-trained 12 Prengarde and 13 Shady Operator. Their correlation decreases by the different running styles even if they have the same trainer. 4 Delta Work is the third obvious base-horse here, but at least in jackpot many other horses have a good risk/reward ratio. Tiger Roll leaves value for the whole field, and even the next favored horses have question marks on them.
Race 6:In the last race, one of our strategies has found 2 Andy Dufresene to be worth betting. We cannot reveal the reasons. It is better we keep providing profitable bets without disclosing the strategies behind them. Otherwise, the value for the future bets would collapse. In the Placepot- and Jackpot overall-positions we have even 10Amarillo Sky in slighter overweight. We like to bear risk in the last leg. By doing so we can easier hedge the positions, and the general public bets quite often the last races too widely because they cannot stand the psychological disappointment by being eliminated when everything was almost won.
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