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How we bet the ColossusBets rollover at Cheltenham?
There is a £20.000 rollover on the day one Cheltenham Festival ColossusBets Placepot. That’s how we bet:
In the first leg, the three favorites are very good and still improving. We don’t take a strong stand here. 7 Mighty Potter is not that far after the top three according to our Auren-numbers, but as 7-1 fourth favorite Placepot is not the optimal market to bet him.
We are humble with the market even on the second leg. 1 Blue Lord is at the moment (10.00 GMT) the 3rd favorite at 9/2, but we rate 4 Edwardstone and 11 Riviere d’Etel not that much superior, so again an unimaginative solution marking the three favorites is quite OK.
In the Placepot-betting, it pays often to bet aggressively with only a few selections on races, where the public uses many horses. The favorite 6 Floueur is included in most of our tickets, but we’ll have 1 Frodon in our position with a much bigger share of the stakes than his ca. 5% support in the market suggests. According to our Auren numbers, Frodon is the best horse in the race. The younger ones might have not improved past him. He’ll get a good trip. If you believe in the effect of weights more than we do, 20 Our Power is a very good bet for you. He has good Auren numbers and carries quite light weight compared to our ratings. For risk management reasons we pay a few lines through 11 Fantastikas, but the others we leave for the public. One needs to bear risk somewhere in the placepot.
In the fourth Placepot race, it is very hard to go against 10 Honeysuckle. She is the champion and performs very consistently even if she is an old mare. Honeysuckle is even ”needed” for the ideally structured Placepot positions, so we’ll have her as a banker in most of our ColossusBets syndicates and hedge with 2 Appreciate It in the other markets. In some placepot-combos, though, Appreciate It plays well with the very best ideas and favorites.
Leg five: We cannot be sure, that 9 Queens Brook improves as much as is needed from her last outing. Because the race looks more open for us than it seems to look for media and the market, we’ll cover it widely here: with 11 Tellmesomethinggirl, 10 Stormy Ireland, 1 Burning Victory, and 3 Heaven Help Us.
We’ll close the placepot by overweighting 8 Gaelic Warrior and hedging him if we are alive in the final. Gaelic Warrior suits well in the nature of today’s placepot, and in the other markets, he might be a bad risk/reward ratio.
On those syndicates we have found value elsewhere and can afford to go against Gaelick Warrior, we’ll include 2 The Tide Turns, who impressed us in some of his best flat performances. Even 19 Too Friendly has a good capacity, and he might learn more and more about his new jumping profession. 10 HMS Seahorse is the third horse in our ”challengers”-block.
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