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Four rollovers in Newmarket 2000 Guineas Saturday.
For me, classy horses, exciting sport, and intelligent, profitable betting are equally important ingredients for a fascinating horse racing experience. The Newmarket 2000 Guineas racing day today has it all. The worlds best three-year-old milers can be bet in the ColossusBets Placepot, Jackpot, and P4 rollovers, and there is free dead money in the 2000 Guineas First Four, too.
Even generally, I like bearing risks in the big races. First of all, our strength has always been to understand the real class of the horses. The top-level racers are more consistent. They run to their true form much more often compared to the ”normal” horses. The less randomness, the more clearly and fast a good player gets what she deserves from the horse-race-betting markets.
In the good races, there is more and better information available than in ”bulk” races. The turnovers stand higher bets. We increase our capital by betting on many markets constantly and with high frequency and small stakes, so our own staking is not a problem. But quite often the winning players spot the same over-priced horses in the same races, so the more uneducated (or dead) money in the pool, the better.
And then (I have to admit) I like increasing the emotional ups and downs in the big races. I call these ”Sportsman Bets”. I want to win or lose more and feel more in the classics to make them even more memorable.
For those reasons mentioned above, I play almost all of the ColossusBets pools today with 10 Native Trail as a banker. I want to raise or fall with him.
Native Trail is unbeaten and has the best ratings. Charlie Appleby is not only a champion trainer: he is good even when the quality of his horses is taken into account. Our trainer ratings are calculated in that way. The idea is to minimize the probability, that a horse doesn’t run his race, and on other hand maximize the potential of improvement of the typical horse a certain trainer sends to a race. Our numbers also react to the popularity of a trainer in the eyes of the betting market. For example, AP O’Brien is backed almost religiously by big patriotic Irish money. That affects the odds so much, that O’Brien is not so good bet compared to his great record in group races.
O'Brien's unbeaten Luxembourg has the potential to be a champion, but we don’t know for sure yet. There have been numerous hyped, well-backed O'Brien horses over the years, who have not been talked about as much after underperforming (the unrealistic) market expectations in the British classics. They are so many good horses O’Brien sends to the classics, that it is easy to remember the winners and forget the over-bet losers.
So far we have higher numbers on Native Trail than on Luxembourg. Some have made an issue of Native Trail being drawn number twenty, but Charlie Appleby stated, that this is not a problem. It is easy to agree to take into consideration the going, predicted pace, Native Trails flexible running style, and the intelligence of William Buick. And the biggest insurance against bad racing luck for Native Trail is the fact, that the boxes are in the middle of the track.
I hedge our Native Trail positions in the ColossusBets pools by betting Coroebus each-way with the bookmaker, who offers the top price. In our Auren ratings, Coroebus is closer to the two favorites than the odds suggest.
Even in the Group-races, there is a slight correlation between the runners of the same trainer. Therefore I build my ColossusBets First Four -position mainly on the idea, that the other Appleby-horse Coroebus places among the first four with Native Trail. That idea works well along with the fact, that the well-backed Luxembourg has a slight chance of dropping outside the first four. Then the ColossusBets First Four dividends would explode.
In the ColossusBets racing pool bets, it is very important not to bet too popular or too improbable combinations. With the lines containing two big upsets, even scooping the whole pot alone doesn't reward the risk. On other hand, the most probable lines are included in many, many tickets, and their winning is too small compared to the chance of hitting, too.
Our key to our million winnings and yearly profits since 1979 in the racing pools betting has been reduced systems, where one combines an optimal number of favorites with an optimal number of less fancied horses.
The most profitable lines in the six-race pools are quite often the ones consisting of 4-5 favorites and 1-2 less fancied horses. One can create that kind of position by accepting the small work of spreading the bets to a couple of coupons. We call our strongest selections as A. Contenders with a decent win probability but with limited profitability are B. The live outsiders = C.
Today we'll bet in the ColossusBets jackpot and placepot the following combinations:
6xA
5xA + B,C
4xA+2xB
4xA+B+C
If one wants to be mathematically accurate, the optimal placepot strategy differs slightly from the best jackpot strategy, and the horses would have been selected and grouped slightly differently in those two forms of pools betting. However, in this simple demonstration, I want to keep the lesson simple. I'll explain more detailed ideas in my future blogs.
So the groups today are as follows:
Race 1: A: 7 B: 1 C: 6
Race 2: A: 3,7 B: 11,20: C: 7,15,1,2,
Race 3: A 2,1,9,4
Race 4: A 10 B: 4,1,9 C: 12,6,8
Race 5: A: 10
Race 6: A: 7,4: B: 5 C: 6,1
Enjoy the great sport and good luck!
Ps. At the 1.50 race, 3 Jumby has according to our figures over 15% win probability. In the competitive and even race, there is a chance he will be offered a price exceeding the profitability threshold ca. 6-1.
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