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The Epsom Derby: Horses for courses – and pools.
The Epsom Derby:
Horses for courses – and pools.
The Epsom Derby number 243 will be even more special than the classiest race in the racing world is normally. It will be run in honor of Lester Piggot, the greatest jockey in racing history. The public will see the race live the first time after two covid-years.
Sportingly, the race has wide quality. Our Auren ratings say Desert Crown, Star of India, and Walk of Stars are the best. However, Desert Crown has by far the greatest potential for improvement, which is the key factor in Derby-betting according to our philosophy. Desert Crown has raced and won only twice, and he is trained by Sir Michael Stoute.
I started to follow British racing around 1980 and remember Stoute’s first Derby win with Shergar 1981. I saw Stoute’s Doyoun finding the Derby Distance too long 1988 but had a small each-way on Shahrestanui as a part of my position 1986.
Over the years, I have learned, that Stoute’s 3-years-old improve more from their seasonal debut run compared to the other top trainers. That research finding is the reason, why I have Desert Crown as a banker on all of my ColossusBets syndicates for the boosted P6 Placepot.
Already with less than normal Stoute improvement, Desert Crown should be the best horse on the field. But taking into consideration the Stoute factor and the fact, that Desert Crown’s preparation for the Dante Stakes had not been ideal due to the bruised leg in February, Desert Crown could improve a lot today.
According to my research and experience, even slight and healed injuries increase the risk of underperforming. Desert Crown might even get an unsuitable trip in a race, which will probably not be run very fast. But even with their slight risks taken into consideration, I have Desert Crown as a banker on all of my ColossusBets syndicates for the boosted P6 Placepot.
Old wisdom says: ”bet horses for courses”. That is extremely true in Epsom with up and downs and the final turn Tattenham Corner, where good balance and ability to save energy towards the demanding straight for home is needed. Desert Crown should have those attributes. But the biggest reason to bear the whole risk of my ColossusBets Placepot-position with Desert Crown is the nature of Placepot-betting.
Desert Crown has about 66 % probability to be placed among the top three and keeping the placepot combinations going through him alive. Star of India has (in round figures) about 22 % to be placed. Both are good marginally profitable bets in the Betfair place-pool, where Desert Crown rewards the risk with price 1.67x and Star of India 5x.
However, in the ColossusBets placepot, the six correct placed horses in the six legs win the same dividend regardless of how popular they were in their probability fields. Therefore opposing the favorites pays off better in other kinds of markets than placepots, One gets better value in other markets – especially with combination-bets like exacta, swinger, and trifiecta, even if the variance makes those pools demanding big capital and patience.
On other hand, in Placepot one needs normally at least three favorites in the profitable combinations. Therefore the ”good” favorites like Desert Crown are ”horses for placepot” and 20x money outsiders like Star of India and Walk of Stars are more suitable for the Each-way-market.
In the ColossusBets placepot, it is very important not to bet too popular or too improbable combinations. With the lines containing too big upsets, even scooping the whole pot alone doesn't reward the risk. On other hand, the most probable lines are included in many, many tickets, and their winning are too small compared to the chance of hitting, too.
Our key to our million winnings and yearly profits since 1979 in the racing pools betting has been reduced systems, where one combines an optimal number of favorites with an optimal number of less fancied horses.
The most profitable lines in the placepot are quite often the ones consisting of 4-5 favorites and 1-2 less fancied horses. One can create that kind of position by accepting the small work of spreading the bets to a couple of coupons. We call our strongest selections as A. Contenders with a decent win probability but with limited profitability are B. The live outsiders = C.
Today we'll bet in the ColossusBets placepot the following combinations:
6xA
5xA + B
The groups today are as follows:
Race 1: A: 4,9,12 B: 7,3
Race 2: A: 4, 3,1 B: 5
Race 3: A 4
Race 4: A: 10,11,7,13,15,8
Race 5: A: 2
Race 6: A:3,7 B: 8,9,4,10,12
PS. At race 3, we take a strong stand for Modern News vs. Mutasaabeq for reasons, we cannot reveal without giving out too much of our profitable trade secrets.
Enjoy the greatest day of the racing year!
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