A chance for a new €11501 with coins
On the last weekend round of the Nations League, we killed the Asian Handicap market, won big in the Finnish Moniveto (correct score), and picked €11501 from the ColossusBets P8 1-x-2 with only a syndicate costing only €24.
Tonight, ColossusBets has a new P8 rollover with about a similar profit expectancy as last time. Now the profitability distribution looks even slightly more skewed towards more probable combinations, which reduces the risk. However, all matches are played at the same time, which makes the cash-outs and hedging more difficult.
England will be overbet by the ColossusBets British customers against Hungary. But on other hand, England has a much stronger starting eleven tonight than Hungary. The visitors have performed surprisingly well in the last few Nations League matches, but their key players must be very, very tired after these.
The more realistic attempt to oppose a favorite might be a draw between Germany and Italy. The injury worries are piling up over Italy, but the team fights and defends well. Germany is of course a big favorite, but Italy might snatch a draw once in four matches like this. The value of the ColossusBets P8 winning combination would jump more than fivefold with the draw, so marking an X to the ColossusBets syndicates is a value bet, even if Germany must be combined with upsets in the other games.
Already against England Italy couldn't field the best possible line-up, but the motivated replacements fought us a well awaited and hopes 0-0 and a good start for our €11501 win.
In Poland - Belgium, Robert Lewandowski should return to the Polish starting 11. That raises the goal expectancy, but there is a risk, that the betting market expects even more goals than it should mathematically. Therefore the draw will not be as improbable as the general public thinks.
Especially, the big Belgium wins might be too much bet now after their 6-1 fireworks against Poland last time. Now Poland will be more focused and tuned to upset.
Romania played well against Finland on Saturday and deserved to take the lead. Then they got too passive and could easily have slipped a point to Finland. However, Romania seems to have improved, and with their recovered home support they are more than 50% favorite vs. Montenegro.
Ukraine has for two decades been an undervalued team. Now they are on a very high emotional level and more than 50% favorite vs. Ireland. Less than half of the ColossusBets P8-lines go via Ukraine. So we have a value bet. Slava Ukraini!
Turkey cannot be opposed vs. Lithunia, because most of the combinations excluding Turkey would make the final winning line too improbable to be bet with the estimated €30.000 final pool.
In the final leg, I am sorry to say, that my team Finland is worse value than Bosnia-Herzegovina due to the home advantage and the expected line-ups. However, the match should be a low-scoring affair, so the X-markings are not wasted money.
All in all, this ColossusBets P8 tonight is definitely a plus EV-bet. On our Vuoksenmaa – ESBC captain profile we bet only on syndicates, which are expected to be profitable in the long run. They are often optimized, small syndicates with a relatively small chance to hit, but they offer a good value because when they hit, they offer good dividends.
We at European Sports Betting Consultants have optimized the way to estimate the strength of the national teams. The Tuesday P8 1-x-2 rollover is tailor-made for us because we can even judge the fatigue, motivational, line-up, and tactical factors better than the general public. We have more accurate probability estimates than the betting market. We even build our ColossusBets syndicates in an optimized way – eliminating the too improbable and too popular combinations, betting only small, aggressive syndicates with a good expected return. We can bet a lot of them because there are so many profitable single lines, and we can search and group them with our experience and skill.
Welcome to my optimized and profitable syndicates!