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The betting ideas for the Finnish Veikkausliiga today

The ColossusBets pick five 1-x-2 today consisting of five Finnish Veikkausliiga matches is a good betting market. I create P5 syndicates and bet on the matches in the Asian handicap markets, too.

The first leg is VPS Vaasa vs. Honka Espoo.

Promoted team VPS has been better than expected, not only lucky this season. Coach Jussi Nuorela is inexperienced but has given perfectly fitting roles to his players, and first and foremost, he gets the best out of the players. Last Saturday I saw VPS humiliating my team IFK Helsingfors 1-5 here in Helsinki. VPS deserved that kind of scoreline. By expected goals, they should have won "only" with over two goals, but their decisive attacking playstyle and aggressiveness to force IFK to mistakes without making mistakes themselves was impressive. VPS will not make the upper third-round series, but they are not in the relegation battle as generally expected pre-season.

That being said, it is probably a +EV decision to oppose VPS today and have the away side Honka overweight.

Honka's squad has changed a lot from last season, but their good coach Vesa Vasara knows, what he wants, and Honka is almost as good as SJK and Inter Turku chasing the places behind HJK and KuPS. Last Saturday Honka beat KuPS 2-0 and broke the KuPS unbeaten run of 31 Veikkausliiga matches.

Honka is about 42% away favorite at Vaasa, and I expect less than 42% of the ColossusBets P5 lines to go via Honka win. Therefore I have Honka as a value bet in big part of my ColossusBets syndicates.

KuPS should be now extra motivated to return to winning ways in their home tie against AC Oulu, ColossusBets P5 leg two. The class difference between KuPS and Oulu is big, but not as big, as the market believes. AC Oulu was rated as the second biggest relegation candidate before the season started. But Oulu has shown, that they are stronger. The situation is a bit like it is with VPS Vaasa: the "cheap" Oulu players know their tasks and give everything in the matches. Oulu showed that, when they snatched a 10-1 win away at HJK Helsinki last weekend, even if the referee helped them slightly.

However, due to the psychological factors, I do not bet too heavily AC Oulu to great the heroic surprise away vs. KuPS. As said, KuPS is extra motivated after the first defeat in 32 matches, and on other hand, Oulu might feel "too good" after the HJK win. KuPS will take AC Oulu seriously without slipping to that "half-sleepy" way of playing, which is always a risk for big favorites in the normal routine games. Of course the draws and Oulu wins play well in the combinations with the favorites in the other ColossusBets P5 matches, but about 90% of the individual lines included in our P5 position go through KuPS win, even if that is well backed by public, too.

In the third leg, SJK Seinäjoki is a very playable favorite vs. Haka Valkeakoski.

Haka has been built towards a clear vision by their talented coach Teemu Tainio. The former Auxerre and Tottenham player will be a master-class coach in the future. Already now he gets much better results than the market value or salaries from Haka players would suggest. Haka is a decent middle table team, better than the market expected before the season.

However, today I might bet against Haka and go for SJK Seinäjoki instead. SJK is a badly led organization, a soap opera, a black hole of talent in Finnish football. Season after season they underachieve with good players AND good coaches (who quite often get sacked). But that being said, the betting market might have gone too far today when making SJK only a slight favorite vs. Haka. The bets distribution might be even more level in the ColossusBets P5, so the favorite result, a home win might increase the value of the P5 winning line surprisingly nicely.

Mehmet Hetemaj is missing from SJK. Haka plays with a good starting aleven.

My team IFK Helsinki could not create anything last weekend vs. VPS. They made a lot of defensive mistakes and lost the ball too easily. The team is economically going bust. Today HIFK travels to Tampere, where their pathetic offence will find it very difficult to score against llves organized defence. llves is clearly a top 6 team in Finland, much better that HIFK, which is the worst in today's information reality.

However, almost nobody in the ColossusBets P5 bettor population bets the draw or HIFK, so I need to. I get an exceptional value. HIFK has more than one chance in three to avoid a defeat. I'll bet Asian Handicap HIFK + 1 1/4 and the total under 2 1/4 even if I lost a lot last weekend with HIFK.

The decisive leg in the ColossusBets P5 it the match between Inter Turku and FC Lahti.

Inter Turku lost their good coach Jose Riveiro and a handful of players from the starting eleven. However, they still have very skillful and creative players, especially, when Petteri Forsell joined the team. The good midfielders feed the clinical striker Benjamin Källman. For these reasons, Inter might be the strongest of the bunch Inter - SJK - Honka - Ilves, the "big two" challengers group.

Today's opponent FC Lahti beats the expectations year after year. The same might happen again this year, but there are a lot of question marks over the team, and they are not my cup of tea when trying to find live underdogs (at least in the informational situation we are today, the 22nd of June 2022 3.30 GMT). Lahti has several good or decent players missing today. So I have Inter Turku as a banker in most of my syndicates and as a selection in about 70 % of all the lines I bet in the ColossusBets P5 overall position.

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