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The Belarus football – a small great betting market
The Belarus football – a small great betting market
The Belarus Premier League is not only the ”Only game in town” during the Corona-closure elsewhere. It is actually a very good betting market.
The betting markets over-react to the small sample of results. These anomalies are as strongest in a new market as the Belarusian Premier League, where the majority of the bettors don’t know the teams thoughtfully.
The first five weeks in the Belarusian Vysshaya Liga have been very profitable for the thinking bettors, but the next few rounds could well be even better. The average bettors have now ”enough” results to create an ”opinion” of the teams – based on a very little sample of information, which can easily lead to wrong probability estimates. These can be exploited by thinking bettors, who have analyzed the teams deeply and have the confidence not to change their opinion too fastly.
Bate Borisov is a perfect example of a team, whose last results lie. Bate is ”the Belarusian football” – a team, which is close to being among the 100 best in Europe. Bate is normally year after year the Belarusian champion, even if they slipped the trophy to Brest last year.
This spring the Borisov-team doesn’t have European football as a distraction. They have strengthened their defense and have a superior overall depth in their squad compared even to their fiercest competitors, Brest and Shakhtyor Sologorsk. In my book, Bate Borisov is a slight odds-on-favorite to win the Belarusian title even if they are available at 6 to 5.
Bate has not impressed in their first five matches, but I have seen slow starts so many times, all over the world with the ”sure champions”. Bate will improve soon. In the ColossusBets pools, one needs solid favorites to prevent the selected lines not to explode to the over difficult -territory, where even the whole pot doesn’t cover the very small probability of hitting. Bate as a banker and wild results elsewhere will be a smart structure of many profitable tickets in the next few weeks.
Even Brest and Soligorsk have underperformed the market expectations slightly so far. They are not as good as Bate, but far better than the rest. The key indicators confirmed, that Soligorsk played well already last season, and their performances have been better than their point total suggests.
Dinamo Minsk is a typical example, how slowly we at European Sports Betting Consultants react to the small sample of results. The betting market has turned negative to Dinamo Minsk, and the manager of the team Sergey Gurenko was sacked already after five games! The unbelievable paradox is, that I had actually raised Dinamo’s Power Rating after their two wins and three defeats, because of some advanced indicators in my mathematical model.
I cannot understand, what Gurenko did wrong as a the Dinamo manager. Nor do I add any extra power-rating-points to Dinamo Minsk regardless of Gurenko’s replacement (baring he is not Arsene Wenger).
Yuri Puntus is the best manager in the Belarusian league. His Zhodino has been a profitable team to bet on already. We keep betting our idea team. Zhodino is an organized, solid team without obvious ”weak-links”.
Likewise, we remain faithful to the other team I underlined in my previous Belarusian Football blog in the ColossusBets site, Energetik Minsk. The ”school-boy-team” defeated their first three opponents including Bate Borisov, but then they lost against the strong Zhodino and a home game vs. Gorodeya (with bad luck). The young and well-coached Energetik is perhaps not a very reliable performer, but they can be very good on their best day.
We have been very lucky winning with Slutsk two big pots. The marginals have been on their side. But I have barely raised their power-rating even if they are the top of the league. they belong among the worst third in the league. However, after the top five, the remaining eleven are a very tight bunch. Only Belshina has started to look clearly worse than the others.
Here come the Belarusian power ratings from my company European Sports Betting Consultants ltd plc, as of Wednesday the 22th of April 4 pm.
BATE Borisov
78
Brest
74
Soligorsk
70
Dinamo Minsk
60
Zhodino
53
FK Minsk
44
Isloch
46
Mozyr
45
Vitebsk
44
Neman
44
Gorodeya
43
Energetik
41
Slutsk
40
Smolevichi
35
Rukh Brest
38
Belshina
33
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