Kategoria: Blogi

All-time high - to be risked

All-time high - to be risked

In My Way -mission, I lost a big part of my risk capital during my Paris week between the 6th of May and the 13th of May. That can happen if one gets a hotel room with the number 414.

No, seriously, I do not believe in numerology, as my Asian hi-rolling betting friends do. But I would not tell you the truth, if I said, that I would not have thought about my "unlucky number" when seeing a dozen empty-net goals going in in the NHL playoffs games and baseball losses accumulating in an even more spectacular way.

Fortunately, I remained calm and managed to recoup my losses during May - even if I had another horrendous day in the final round of the Premier league.

In football and ice hockey, the betting market overestimates the quantity and probability of the overtime goals. I need to bet against the market. When the market has "right" and the goals pile up, I lose -and I like to lose. That makes it possible to gain when things go normally.

One of the biggest losses during my career was the Brazil - Germany World Cup semifinal in 2014 when the final score was 1-7 - and yes, I was aware, that Thiago Silva was missing. The money I lost there and in the less dramatic goal-orgies has been returned back to me in all those numerous "normal" matches, where the scoring has dried up to the final quarter.

After a quite smooth raising, my risk capital (and the net profit) reached the new all-time-high yesterday, Thursday the 9th of June. Last night the very same baseball-betting strategies, which have accumulated my capital for many years, produced almost entirely losing bets. So here we go again! But the general trend is upwards, and the 1781 first bets I have placed in Sportmarket during the "My Way" -mission have now produced 8% net profit per bet. That kind of profit margin is unsustainable, of course, but we have a lot of scope for increasing the stake size, making the capital go round and accumulating faster than now. So far we have needed to be very careful after the two bad runs we have faced.

We are on the pace of reaching one million with the betting profits and €800 monthly deposits in ten years.

The ups and downs are the nature of "My Way". I should not get defensive or overcautious after reaching a new all-time-high, nor should I try to recoup the losses too fast after a bad run. One should stake according to a pre-decided, disciplined strategy. I use Kelly/five - slightly adjusted to different sports, leagues, and situations. I tend to decrease my stakes additionally after a bad run of results, because there is a risk, that my analysis is not on the normal level for psychological reasons.

I have found a "Vuoksenmaa-quality-bet" for a Finnish Veikkausliiga match on Saturday the 18th of June.

Since May 2019, when I started to publish my "Vuoksenmaa-bets", they have returned 24% net profit per bet. I and my customers have been very lucky because the expected profit per bet has been something like 5%.

With the Sportmarket brokerage service, the expected profit for my best bets might reach 7%, because they get now always the best odds in the best possible market among the serious bookmakers. But I do not expect to earn more equity per bet than 7%. However, this particular bet on Saturday the 18th seems to be a very good one compared to the previous, very profitable bets.

Sportmarket has a great option called "Mollybet". There one can lay bets in a similar way as in the betting exchanges. I utilize Mollybet with my great Veikkausliiga bet now, when we have plenty of time before the kick-off. I lay offering the top price on the opponent of my idea. Sooner or later those prices will be taken, and then I have added my position on my team at very profitable prices.

On Saturday, similar bets to the one I made will lose about once in three tries. The bet will be one of the biggest in the My Way -mission. So I know it will hurt psychologically if the 33% bad card lands and I'll lose. But what can I do?

"Let the profits run, cut the losses short", has been my winning way of thinking, which has given my capital a bumpy, but upcoming ride.


What is "My Way" ?

I designated an account in Sportmarket ear-marked only for this project. I deposited there €800 + €800 in February and then €800 every month. I started to bet in the same very defensive, risk-averse way, as I did when I was young. I write regular blogs on our web page www.esbc.fi, where I follow, how this experiment/mission/challenge progresses. I call this mission MyWay.

Follow MyWay! It is not only my twists and turns in this mission, not only nostalgia from my first way towards my first million. You'll learn a lot about betting strategies, my way of thinking and working, risk management, war stories" and nostalgia. Occasionally you'll learn how to win +EV equity in upcoming sporting events for free.

Welcome to join me in MyWay!

ESBC:n kanssa enemmän iloa vedonlyönnistä

ESBC:n voittamisen resepti perustuu Suomen tunnetuimman vedonlyöntisijoittajan Jorma Vuoksenmaan tutkimustuloksiin ja yli 30 voitollisen vuoden kokemukseen vedonlyönnistä. Jorma Vuoksenmaa ja ESBC:n työntekijät pelaavat samaan analyysiin perustuen samoja kohteita kuin asiakkaamme.

ESBC:n Internet-sivustolta peliharrastajat ja -sijoittajat saavat päivittäin ajankohtaiset sijoitusneuvot Pitkävetoon, Monivetoon, hevospeleihin ja Internet-vedonlyöntiin. ESBC ylläpitää kykyään parantaa asiakkaittensa menestystä yliopistotasoisella tutkimuksella pelisijoittamisesta ja urheilusta.

 

Uutiset ja blogitekstit RSS-syötteenä