Kategoria:
NHL Blogi
Central Division: Midseason review
Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the season. While the team benefited from some early-season luck, its underlying ESBC Power AI metrics have since improved, validating its strong performance. The backbone of the Jets' success is goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, arguably the best in the league this season. He has consistently outperformed expected goals against, stopping more than half a goal per game beyond expectations. Offensively, Kyle Connor leads the way with 26 goals and 34 assists, while Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Gabriel Vilardi, Nino Niederreiter, and Adam Lowry have all contributed significantly. On defense, Josh Morrissey logs the heaviest minutes, but depth across all three pairs has been a key factor. With early-season luck now supported by improved play, Winnipeg is a serious contender for the Western Conference's top spot.
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota has been one of the most overachieving teams of the first half of the season. Despite sitting second in the Central Division standings, their underlying performance suggests they should be closer to the middle of the pack. The Wild have won several tight games, and Kirill Kaprizov was arguably the league's best forward in the early months. Interestingly, Minnesota has performed better on the road than at home, though this is likely due to statistical variance. The team deserves credit for battling through injuries to key players such as Kaprizov, Jonas Brodin, and Jared Spurgeon. However, unless the Wild's ESBC Power AI rating begins to improve, regression toward a mid-tier standing is inevitable. Wild got some good news just today and both Kaprizov & Spurgeon are back in action!
Dallas Stars
Dallas entered the season as one of the Western Conference favorites and has lived up to expectations with a strong first half. Even more encouragingly, Peter DeBoer’s team has managed to improve its ESBC Power AI rating over the course of the season, making their outlook even brighter. The goaltending duo of Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith has been steady, while on defense, Miro Heiskanen has had a slightly below-standard season by his lofty metrics. Fortunately, Thomas Harley has stepped up, easing some of Heiskanen’s workload. Offensively, Dallas deploys a deep attack, no longer reliant solely on Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson. With their current form, a top-two finish in the Central Division seems highly realistic for the Stars.
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado’s high-flying offense, led by Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Cale Makar, remains one of the most dynamic in the league. However, since December, the team’s ESBC Power AI metrics have declined, shifting them from an elite contender to an upper-middle-tier team. Early-season struggles were tied to goaltending issues, prompting changes in net. The new tandem of Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood has shown promise, particularly Blackwood, who has impressed in his Avalanche debut. Colorado continues to face a familiar issue: while their top-end talent is elite, depth remains a concern. The upcoming returns of Valeri Nichushkin and possibly captain Gabriel Landeskog should help address this. The Avalanche will be in the playoff mix, but their final position in the standings remains uncertain.
St. Louis Blues
The hiring of Jim Montgomery as head coach has proven to be a wise decision for St. Louis. Under his guidance, the Blues have reduced their goals-per-game average while improving their expected goals ratio. As a result, their ESBC Power AI ranking has climbed since the season began. Offensively, Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas, and Dylan Holloway have stood out, while on defense, Cam Fowler—acquired from Anaheim—has settled in well. This has mitigated the impact of injuries to Nick Leddy and Torey Krug. In goal, Jordan Binnington has performed adequately, though backup Joel Hofer has struggled at times. Currently battling for the final Western Conference playoff spot, St. Louis has a legitimate chance to make the postseason under Montgomery’s leadership.
Utah Hockey Club
After relocating from Arizona, the Utah Hockey Club has adjusted well to its new surroundings, staying within striking distance of a Western Conference playoff spot. Despite facing numerous injuries on defense, the young roster has put together a respectable season. Clayton Keller has been the standout offensive performer, supported by Dylan Guenther, Nick Schmaltz, and Logan Cooley. Finnish forward Matias Maccelli is chasing the 20-goal mark but remains slightly off pace. On defense, offseason acquisition Mikhail Sergachev has logged heavy minutes (26 per game), and his recent injury is a significant concern if it lingers. The return of John Marino provides some relief. Finnish defensemen Olli Määttä and Juuso Välimäki have played solid minutes but need to contribute more offensively. In goal, Connor Ingram has struggled, while Karel Vejmelka has overtaken him in ESBC Power AI’s goaltender rankings. Overall, Utah's development appears promising, and while a playoff berth may be out of reach this season, the franchise is trending in the right direction.
Nashville Predators
Nashville has been among the most disappointing teams this season. After making three high-profile acquisitions—Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei—the expectation was a step forward. However, the start of the season was rough for Andrew Brunette’s squad. While Stamkos and Marchessault have shown signs of improvement, their contributions have yet to reach true superstar levels. Meanwhile, Roman Josi’s play has declined from elite to merely excellent, and goaltender Juuse Saros has looked human rather than dominant. Recent improvements in the team’s ESBC Power AI metrics are encouraging, but not enough to suggest a realistic playoff push just yet.
Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago entered the season with low expectations, as the team remains in rebuilding mode. Even so, their start was worse than anticipated, leading to the December firing of head coach Luke Richardson. AHL call-up Anders Sörensen now leads the team for the remainder of the season. Connor Bedard’s sophomore campaign has been solid, though his full breakout into superstardom may take another year. Teuvo Teräväinen has been a bright spot, posting 10 goals and 23 assists in a limited role. Goaltender Petr Mrázek has struggled, though poor defensive play in front of him has not helped. Chicago’s ESBC Power AI rating has continued to decline even after Richardson’s departure, making a last-place finish—and a high draft pick—highly likely.
Conclusion
At the midseason mark, Winnipeg and Dallas have established themselves as top contenders in the Central, while Minnesota’s success seems fragile without statistical improvement. Colorado remains a dangerous team but has some structural flaws to address. St. Louis and Utah are fighting for playoff spots, while Nashville's underperformance raises concerns. Chicago, meanwhile, remains in full rebuild mode. The second half of the season will determine how these trends develop, but as things stand, the division is shaping up for an exciting playoff race.
ESBC - Together more from the Games!
Uutiset ja blogitekstit RSS-syötteenä