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My Way
Study of the markets, sports and layers
If you do not search the layers for your bets via the Sportmarket brokerage service, you may still use it as an odds comparison service and research platform.
You can import data from the Sportmarket site to a database of your own or Excel. Then you can do all kinds of research on the odds and markets - hit rates, profitability, odds movements... - basically, only your imagination and programming skills set the limits.
Already on the Sportmarket site, you can research a lot. By choosing first the "analytics facility", you can then search for the event (event, competition, country), bets (market, market type, selection, in the running or not), and order type (a bet, lay, accumulator).
I'll write more about my research in the future My Way -blogs, but I will touch on some of my most important findings here.
First, there seem to be significant differences in the efficiency of the different markets sorted by sports.
It is not a surprise that Football seems to offer the slightest edge. The big markets draw the best operators to fight about the millions. Therefore, the odds seem to settle near the actual probabilities near the kickoff. The betting in the running appears to have more profitable investment opportunities than the pre-game markets.
Between the individual leagues, there are considerable differences in profitability. However, one should not "learn" too much about these findings because even a sample of one thousand bets contains a lot of randomness. The English Premier League seems to offer the best profits, but we don't know for sure until a couple of years. The German Bundesleague appears to be the hardest nut to crack, but there is no logical reason.
American Sports have given the most significant profits and profit margins. It might be the case that the American bettors are not as sophisticated as their European counterparts. The Americans might bet with worse information because the local betting media is quite naive and stuck with old, unresearched myths. There is more "mug money" from unsophisticated bettors in American sports than soccer.
American football has offered the best profits year after year. That fits nicely with the theory: the more action bets from the ordinary hobby bettors in the market, the more the thinking investors can win.
Tennis seems to be by far the most profitable market. However, that is probably just a co-incident, and the profit margin will revert toward something like 2% net profit per bet. Many intelligent bettors and algorithms are trading in Tennis, so logically, it should be the most challenging market to beat.
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What is "My Way"?
Follow MyWay! You'll learn much about betting strategies, my way of thinking and working, risk management, war stories" and nostalgia. Occasionally you'll learn how to win +EV equity in upcoming sporting events for free.
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