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My Way
Sneak the bets in
Multiple bets with partly correlated results have been a big help on my way as a winning sports bettor - especially in the Football World Cup tournaments.
The Cameroon doubles (and a treble I hedged very profitably) gave my capital a decisive boost in 1994, when Cameroon beat Argentina and Romania at 16-1, respectively 14-1. 1998 I had a guaranteed plus-tournament after the first match when Senegal's Papa Bouba Diop scored for 10-1 shot Senegal, and I had many combinations with France to lose another match and Senegal to win again.
There have been similar success stories almost in all World Cups over these four decades I have bet them professionally. In most cases, the "same team parlays" have not hit, but one has been able to cash out them with big profits with the new odds when the market has overreacted to the surprising results of the unfancied, underestimated teams have reached in the first two matches. Opposing the overbet favorites and then hedging the bets, when the whole world have started to shout about "crisis" has been an equally profitable strategy.
There have been cases where the surprise team's odds in the final round have been 10-1 in my original parlays and then 3-1 in the final round. It is surprising how many years bookmakers could afford to accept these doubles and trebles. It might be, that they understood how dangerous these partly correlated doubles and trebles on (or against) the same team were. Still, they tolerated them in order not to kill the very profitable "normal multiples market" with too complicated and (in the betting shops) uncontrollable rules.
However, the trend has been that in the Internet betting "Iran - Iran - Iran" or "Wales to lose three times" -trebles have not been accepted. And it is very troubleful, costly, and stressful to organize "beards" to place the same team trebles in the betting shops. Therefore I was happy when I found that I could sneak in my trebles via Sportmarket. Of course, I do not bet multiples if I don't gain from the partly dependent outcomes, but with my World Cup bets, I won a lot of "Expected Value Money" with my multiples.
Well, I won value but lost real money - even with my hedges. The Iran - USA -game last night was huge for me. When Iran had beaten Wales, I stood to win a lot with Iran. Unfortunately, I had hedged only with 0-0
and 1-1, because I believed that USA would not be that dominant against the hard-fighting Iran team. But I was wrong. USA was as strong as they had shown in their first two matches and as the betting market knew. I lost money deservedly.
I won small with the Senegal-based combos and the ones where I faded Qatar. I am on with some small ones with Croatia etc., but this year I'll lose money with my same team multiples. However, I'll sneak in similar ones in Euro2024 and the big tournaments in the other continents via Sportmarket.
As I have maintained in this blog series, MyWay has been - and it will be - a very bumpy ride upwards.
Welcome to follow - or join - My Way!
What is "My Way"?
I designated an account in Sportmarket earmarked only for this project. I deposited there €800 + €800 in February and then €800 every month. I started to bet in the same very defensive, risk-averse way as I did when I was young. I write regular blogs on our web page www.esbc.fi, where I follow how this experiment/mission/challenge progresses. I call this mission MyWay.
Follow MyWay! It is not only my twists and turns in this mission, not only nostalgia from my first way towards my first million. You'll learn much about betting strategies, my thinking and working, risk management, war stories" and nostalgia. Occasionally you'll learn how to win +EV equity in upcoming sporting events for free.
Welcome to join me in MyWay!
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