Scooping, hedging, wheeling, dealing
Last night (on Monday, the 19th of December), I scooped the maximum win with minimum stakes in the NFL ColossusBets P7, where one tries to pick the correct win margin categories in the seven NFL matches. The scoop was my third on this NFL season. Again, I had to bet alone because not enough partners, almost nobody, wanted to join my syndicates.
When one bets 200.000-1 shots, one needs luck. And one reduces the volatility of the profitable betting operation by hedging at least part of the possible but improbable big wins.
Last night I had to wake up at 3 AM Finnish time to monitor my position in the Green Bay - LA Rams -match. I stood to win the maximum if Green Bay Packers won by 1-12 points or if LA Rams won by 1-6 points. I had backed bigger Rams wins because I felt they offered slim value even without taking the hedging purpose into consideration. Then I added a little on Green Bay -12½. I got good odds via Sportmarket, so even if I - of course - kept rooting for the "normal" scores to give me the jackpot, I was guaranteed to win a decent sum if the too-popular Packers wins or Rams surprises became realized. But I knew that during the game, I could find profitable AND risk-reducing bets.
So two espressos at 3 AM, NFL-TV, and two trading computers open, and here we go! And yes, early in the second quarter, Green Bay's -10 points was, according to model and robot, over 1.1 EV-value, and it correlated only with 11 and 12 points Green Bay wins with my P7 jackpot-scooping range.
After many twists and turns, the score was 24 - 12 for Green Bay, with some seven minutes left in the game. Green Bay had the ball and progressed with it, consuming as much time out of the clock as possible. Fortunately for me, they arrived at the two-yard line late enough to be able to end the game with victory formation.
Now I won my big Green Bay -10 hedge bets and scooped the P/ with the 6-12 points slot.
It doesn't always go this way, I have realized in My Way. But when you use good strategies, work hard, and use the best tools, you'll help your luck. Even in hedging, Sportmarket is a precious tool. One gets the bets executed with the best prices - and fast. Without Sportmarket (and good luck), I would not have won as big last night as I did.
I write this on Tuesday evening, watching my hockey team HIFK Helsinki score four unanswered goals against Jukurit Mikkeli to reach a 4-2 lead before the last period. I feel extra happy because Sportmarket had found us the odds 3.21x on over six, 2.15x over five, and 1.42x on over four goals Asian Total.
After this evening and another successful World Cup (167 pre-match-bets, net profit of 18,44%), the My Way -account is now at its all-time high, I feel happy but sleepy after last night's excitement and the huge World Cup workload, so I'll go to bed and start my Christmas holiday now. My crew might continue betting on the My Way -project, and in my other accounts, if they wish - I have given them the freedom to take as much holiday as they want. I'll return to action after the Epiphany. I'll do during my Christmas Holiday anything else but betting-related things - reading books, listening to old vinyl albums, playing board games and pinball, and meeting my adult-aged children and my 85-year-old mother. I try to do everything as close as possible to my childhood Christmases.
Have a relaxing Christmas with your loved ones, and a happy new year 2023!
Welcome to follow - or join - My Way!
What is "My Way"?
I designated an account in Sportmarket earmarked only for this project. I deposited there €800 + €800 in February and then €800 every month. I started to bet in the same very defensive, risk-averse way as I did when I was young. I write regular blogs on our web page www.esbc.fi, where I follow how this experiment/mission/challenge progresses. I call this mission MyWay.
Follow MyWay! It is not only my twists and turns in this mission, not only nostalgia from my first way towards my first million. You'll learn much about betting strategies, my thinking and working, risk management, war stories" and nostalgia. Occasionally you'll learn how to win +EV equity in upcoming sporting events for free.
Welcome to join me in MyWay!