Reversal deja vu
Uruguay - Ghana....
Wait a moment! No, not again...
These were my first thoughts when I realized recognized today's fixture in the World Cup. A recalled a bitter memory from World Cup 2010.
I had bet Ghana to win the tournament in South Africa at 200 to one, a decent sum. Of course, I didn't believe they could go to the end, well, not more often than once in 50 attempts, about, but I knew that I had an excellent chance to be able to hedge the bet profitably. I was delighted when Ghana came through from their easy group and beat the USA in the first playoff round.
Ghana remained unfancied by the market in the quarter-final against Uruguay. So I couldn't sell my 200-1 bet, even if it had increased in value by 500 %. So I needed to sit down, hope the best, and watch the game. Actually, I even had to bet more on Ghana with high odds.
The outcome meant a lot for me, not only financially, but for my self-confidence, my reputation, and the happiness of my customers. So I always remember how things looked around when I sat in the Hippodrome Casino Croisse-Laroche restaurant in northern France (I was playing the satellite tournament for two million Euros Partouche Poker.) It is strange how sharp one's senses get and how well one remembers everything afterward when one is excited or under high stress.
Ghana took the lead, but Uruguay equalized and forced the match to extra time. Then in the dying second of the extra time, Luis Suarez saved a sure Ghana winner with hands from the goal line. A penalty for Ghana. But - a miss. Then the tie goes to a penalty shoot-out, where Uruguay wins. That cost me thousands. Then I ordered a bottle (or two) more wine, and one of the bad beats of my career didn't hurt any longer (until the following day)
I am not superstitious, but I cannot avoid bitter memories and "hopefully not again" -feeling entering my brain before the match. I hope the reversal deja vu will not happen. I namely believe that this year Uruguay is underestimated by the market, and Ghana is overestimated. I have backed Uruguay to win the tournament (as a small part of my position) at prices between 50x and 130x. Now minutes ago, Sportmarket found me Uruguay - 3/4 at 2.13x, and I bet it.
So good luck! Let's enjoy the sweet bitterness of Sports Betting, the ups and downs on my way and your way!
Welcome to follow - or join - My Way!
What is "My Way"?
I designated an account in Sportmarket earmarked only for this project. I deposited there €800 + €800 in February and then €800 every month. I started to bet in the same very defensive, risk-averse way as I did when I was young. I write regular blogs on our web page www.esbc.fi, where I follow how this experiment/mission/challenge progresses. I call this mission MyWay.
Follow MyWay! It is not only my twists and turns in this mission, not only nostalgia from my first way towards my first million. You'll learn much about betting strategies, my thinking and working, risk management, war stories" and nostalgia. Occasionally you'll learn how to win +EV equity in upcoming sporting events for free.
Welcome to join me in MyWay!