The fastest eats the slower
Betting in running offers a great opportunity for profits for a bettor who thinks and reacts fast. Tonight in the Champions League matches there are a couple of fascinating situations where a sharp and prepared live bettor can earn +EV, the expected value.
Tottenham plays at Marseille. With their good home advantage taken into consideration, Marseille is not that big underdog. BUT: if Tottenham scores first, Marseille might collapse and lose their motivation. Marseille needs a win. The draw leaves them out of the Champions League. Even if professional football players are mentally strong, they are human beings. Every Marseille player understands that if they are one goal down, say 20 minutes before the end, the challenge of scoring twice in that short period is very demanding. That shows in the players' performance. The betting market doesn't take that into account enough. Making live bets on strong teams taking the lead in situations, where the draw is useless for the opponents has been one of my very portable live betting plays during the decades.
Even the normal bets in running have been a big booster for my small capital in my career. Actually, between 1988 and 1990, I had only three two-week periods, where I lost money in live betting. I will never forget this incredibly lucky run, and it is easy to remember because, in those days, bookmakers operated credit accounts, and the losing side had to send a cheque after a two-week trading period. I sent three cheques, which were mainly smaller than most of the ones I received.
My edge is smaller nowadays, but it still exists. Some market anomalies are still available there to be exploited.
In live betting, the market has not improved as effectively as in pre-game betting. In live betting, everything happens so fast that the bookmakers do not get an entire edge of their resources, computer power, odds compiler armies, robots, and market monitoring. Algorithms cannot react to everything an experienced live bettor can see and turn to profits during the game. On the other hand, if an odds compiler bets in running manually, he/she is prone to mistakes. Emotion and too fast/slow reacting to new information make a human being very vulnerable to errors, which a selective and bold bettor in the running can turn into profits. In reality, very few odds compilers understand the nature and mechanics of football deeply.
The edge Sportmarket gives to their customers is the biggest in live betting. The bigger the differences between the odds offered by the different bookmakers, the smaller mistakes are needed to beat the bookies.
If one bets via Sportmarket, it is enough that one of the ca. ten bookmakers one can bet via Sportmarket makes a mistake. The selected bet goes via Sportmarket always to the highest available odds among the reliable, big operators.
During my successful live betting via Sportmarket, I have been very impressed with how fast the Sportmarket software is. That is equally important in making profits, as is the robust strategies, own software, and smart, bold attitude. In live betting it is extra essential to get the money in fast and guaranteed. The Sportmarket live betting site is very fast - occasionally even faster than the slowest streams. In certain situations, it can even save you from throwing in "dead money" to the market if the TV stream is delayed. However, even if betting via Sportmarket, please always find out how long the delay is with your pictures.
Similarly, with the Marseille case described above, Eintracht Frankfurt doesn't gain anything by drawing at Lissabon. Therefore, I let Sportmarket to find me the best price for Sporting if they score first vs. the Germans. Even a low price is a good price in these kinds of special situations.
What is "My Way"?
I designated an account in Sportmarket ear-marked only for this project. I deposited there €800 + €800 in February and then €800 every month. I started to bet in the same very defensive, risk-averse way as I did when I was young. I write regular blogs on our web page www.esbc.fi, where I follow, how this experiment/mission/challenge progresses. I call this mission MyWay.
Follow MyWay! It is not only my twists and turns in this mission, not only nostalgia from my first way towards my first million. You'll learn a lot about betting strategies, my way of thinking and working, risk management, war stories" and nostalgia. Occasionally you'll learn how to win +EV equity in upcoming sporting events for free.
Welcome to join me in MyWay!