The early autumn weeks in My Way -project have been a huge disappointment. Decade after decade, I have made money during the first rounds of the starting football leagues, when the markets have overreacted to the first random results. This autumn has been an exception. I lost in August and early September.
The German Bundesliga has been the biggest part of my catastrophe. My return on investment has been ca. 70% of the stakes - 30% net loss. I have found no evident reason for the bad run. It is probably just a normal, unavoidable fluctuation, even if we cannot know for sure. Something might have changed in the underlying sport or the betting market behavior, causing the previously profitable strategies to have turned unprofitable.
Yes, we don't know. But we know that my total profit margin per bet has crashed to 3,1% per bet, as the number of bets has increased and the amount won has decreased.
3,1% per bet is not bad. Actually, I don't know anybody else in the world who has kept that kind of margin in a sample of 4176 bets with an average odds around evens. Do you know anybody? if so, please report me, and I'll try to employ him/her as my advisor.
However, the 3.1% profit margin with my current capital circulation speed is insufficient. With this pace, I'll make a few hundred thousand in the years, but not a million. I need either to increase the profit margin, the stake size as a fraction of my capital, or the number of bets.
I am optimistic that all that will happen. Since 1993, the bets we have made and published in our ESBC services have returned more than 103%. The betting market gets harder to beat all the time, but on the other hand, we'll gain nowadays, on average at least 1% extra for each win due to the Sportmarket "best odds" -service. For these reasons, I expect to hold a slightly bigger margin than 3,1% when we'll reach the milestone of 10.000 bets made in October. My return per bet could improve.
Secondly, I started My Way -project in February. Until the end of last season I reached only 436 NHL-bets - but with a healthy return of 116% per bet. When the NHL will start now in October, I trust I'll keep winning as I have done since 1986. The profit margin will of course return from last season's 116% to the normal levels of 4% or so, but the big number of bets will help me towards the original goal - one million with €800 monthly deposits in 10 years. And as I'll get more and more sure, that the strategies and methods are still profitable in nowadays conditions, I can increase the stake size per bet. As you can see, the number of bets, profit margin and stake size are positively correlated, so when things start to progress to the right direction, I'll return to the "one million my way" surprisingly fast.
Once again, I have a look on the picture showing, how important the small differences in the edge of each bet, the bet size and the capital circulation speed are for capital growth.
Let's assume that a bettor can make even money bets (Odds = 2x, evens or +100, as you wish) with a 51,5% probability of hitting. That makes each bet 3% profitable, i.e., to return 1.03 units for each 1 unit bet. The optimal Kelly-bet would be with this edge 0.75% of the capital. After 1000 bets, the expected bankroll is €12200.
I took the 3% profit margin estimate per bet for the example because I have kept that profit margin in a significant sample of bets.
Already 3% profit margin per bet with 1000 monthly bets would accumulate even a tiny risk capital to financial freedom, if the number of bets is big enough. Already with a conservative Kelly per four staking plan would make the 10000 units capital grow to 12200 after 1000 bets - and with that multiplier after each 1000 bets. But what if we could find only 0,5% higher odds on each bet? To find 2.01x instead of 2.00x seems not to be a problem for the Sport Market robots finding the highest odds in the world. Actually, during my first half a year as a Sportmarket customer, the difference between Sportmarket word top odds and the second highest has exceeded 0,5% in most cases I have decided to bet.
You can see from the picture that with the odds 2.01 instead of 2.00 on those very same bets hitting with 51,5% frequency, the same 1000 bets would accumulate the starting capital of €10.000 to €13100.
A difference of 0,5% in the odds, 2.01x instead of 2.00x make a difference of €1100 after 1000 bets. It pays to compare the odds and bet on the biggest one. (Or let Sportmarket to find you the biggest odds). And now the capital multiplier will be 1.31x in each round of the 1000 bets. Interest on interest, so here we go towards one million with €800 monthly deposits in less than 10 years.
Even finding 2.02x instead of 2.00x is not an impossible task. In 1000 of that kind of bets, the capital would grow to €14200.
A €2000 difference, a multiplier of 1.42x each round, a million in already in xxxx years...
Well, we'll see. Interesting times ahead. Welcome to follow - or join - My Way!
What is "My Way"?
I designated an account in Sportmarket ear-marked only for this project. I deposited there €800 + €800 in February and then €800 every month. I started to bet in the same very defensive, risk-averse way as I did when I was young. I write regular blogs on our web page www.esbc.fi, where I follow, how this experiment/mission/challenge progresses. I call this mission MyWay.
Follow MyWay! It is not only my twists and turns in this mission, not only nostalgia from my first way towards my first million. You'll learn a lot about betting strategies, my way of thinking and working, risk management, war stories" and nostalgia. Occasionally you'll learn how to win +EV equity in upcoming sporting events for free.
Welcome to join me in MyWay!