Kategoria:
My Way
Bigger, Broader, Bolder, Better
Happy new year, 2023! Let it be the best one in your betting and the "real" life!
The start of a new year is always a good moment to improve and make good decisions.
I promise to
1) lock my sleeping hours between midnight and 8 AM
2) not to have over 0,6% of alcohol in my blood at any moment
3) exercise at least five times a week
In the MyWay project, I'll start to bet bigger, broader, bolder, and better. I'll increase my activity in basketball, baseball, and tennis. In addition, I'll start researching, following, and betting on certain new leagues. In the beginning, I'll do it from my "real money" accounts with very tiny stakes until I start betting them on the MyWay project. I want to stay very responsible and cautious.
Secondly, in 2023 I'll hedge my positions less, and I'll start betting slightly more often -½ goals lines instead of "draw no bets" or Asian Handicaps + 1/4.
I had to stake very cautiously last year after facing two drawdowns of about fifty (medium-sized) bets. I survived, and the final result of the year 2022 was a 2,8% net profit per bet after 7179 bets. My €800 monthly deposits grew to over €16000 during 2022.
Even with the current pace of capital growth, I will reach one million well before the target date of the MyWay project, the New Year 2032. But I'll start investing slightly more aggressively now with the evidence that I can probably beat the smarter and smarter markets even nowadays.
So far, I have staked typically in a range of Kelly per five, allowing some safety margin of the inaccuracy of my probability estimates. Now I'll trust my estimates more and invest slightly bolder in situations where I believe I have a big edge and a high probability to hit.
Of course, I'll hit a drawdown of more than fifty medium-sized bets again in 2023. But now, even with a slightly increased bet size, I have more room and time to react when bad runs occur.
And it is not all about money. I should not feel like this or admit this, but I feel pressure from the three people who don't wish me well and who write unanimous lies about me on social media. Now, if I faced a losing year in 2023, I would have at least some cover in the social media firestorm when I have shown at least one winning year in the bold, transparent MyWay project.
The losing year 2023? How is that possible? Well, it is not impossible. The net profit of 2,8% per bet of 7179 bets would almost mean that the profit doesn't come from good luck IF we knew the exact probability distribution behind the bets. Now we don't. In the sample, there might be bets which have been minus equity bets - even being made due to losing strategies. one never knows. And the variance of the bets is hard to estimate. There were very short tennis and basketball favorites and 16x odds 0-0 correct scores in among the bets.
A friend of mine was one of the best blackjack card counters in the world. He had about 0,5% edge on those hands when the deck was "hot" with many ten-counters and aces left. In blackjack, almost every second hand is a winner, which is better for the variance compared to my sports betting. So less variance and a defined, measurable, steady edge in the deck of cards, but still, my friend once lost money in a sequence of 70.000 hands. So in that perspective, it is not impossible that I would lose money in 2023.
Secondly, the betting market gets more and more effective all the time. It is not only me and my crew researching, testing, modeling, and data mining essential sports and betting information. One has to run fast in order not to lose one's position in this hard but rewarding race. It is not sure, that even if we had winning strategies in 2022, they would remain winning in 2023. Not only markets develop. even the sports we are betting on are under constant change.
But here we go, energized, humble but confident towards 2023. The capital will increase when one hits a good run with the raised stakes and faster circulation of the capital. When one turns over more money after winning and cuts the stakes after losing, one wins a lot in the lucky runs and returns frustratingly towards lower profit levels in normal circumstances. But with the bigger-broader-bolder-better-philosophy, I can't go bust, and with Sportmarket finding me one or two percent extra edge in thousands of bets, I am on my way towards a million before the new year 2023.
Ps. Follow #MyWay ! It is not only my twists and turns in this mission, not only nostalgia from my first way towards my first million. You'll learn a lot about betting strategies, my way of thinking and working, risk management, war-stories and nostalgy. Occasionally you'll learn how to win +EV equity in upcoming sporting events for free.
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