Kategoria: My Way

NFL: the motorway on my way

NFL has been an essential part of accumulating my betting capital all my life. NFL has been the best league for me regarding the ROI per match. I have not had many losing years since I started betting NFL in 1986.

Before the NFL season started this September, I wrote in this My Way blog: "I am confident that the beginning NFL season will be another winning season for me. I have a lot of experience, research expertise, and a toolbox for the NFL. Even if the market gets “wiser” year after year, I get wiser, too.".

Well, that has been the case. After week six, the first third of the NFL season, I have made 12% net profit on my NFL bets at Sportmarket Pro.

I have been successful with my very selected teasers according to my well-calculated strategy, too, but those bets cannot be placed via Sportmarket.

My successful bets have mainly been underdogs. In many cases, I have sacrificed odds to get an extra half point around a plus three-point handicap. With the same logic, I have taken lower odds with a 2½-point favorite instead of better odds with -3 or minus 3½.

There have not been any "idea" teams with many winning bets. Only Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons have given me three winning bets. The other profitable bets have been divided between many teams, luckily the right teams at the right time, and as stated, mainly underdogs.

The biggest bet - and a win - for the season was Dallas Cowboys vs. Cincinnati Bengals already on the 18th of September. The media shouted that Dallas has "no quarterback". I knew, but with a +3½ home handicap against a worse team, a bet on Dallas was almost forced - even without a quarterback!

In the fall of 2015, I beat over a hundred of Europe's best NFL bettors in the Spreadex Super Challenge betting competition. I called right 66% of the 85 NFL regular season games (five each week), so the first prize of £14.000 came to me "deservedly". The Spreadex-competition on the Internet doesn't exist any longer, and I had no time to travel to Las Vegas to register for the original Las Vegas NFL Super Contest this year. I have a very busy autumn with my birthday party, media responsibilities, and my son's wedding - in addition to the usual busy period of the starting competitions. That was very frustrating, so I found myself a "childish" comfort: I started making five NFL picks each week in my own "Super Contest" -against myself. My idea was, that the Las Vegas Super Contest with the $1000 entry fee (and the extra costs for the trip) would make the whole bet as a bad bet, when the variance is taken into consideration. I would have played the competition mainly for pride and "legend value," anyway. So now I can feel proud if I achieve a high placing in this world-famous, prestigious competition, even if I did not participate officially. I love challenges.

Now, after the six first weeks, I have made 17,5 correct selections of 30 picks (one push). That means 58,3% accuracy and, with 1.95 average odds 114% payback. Surprisingly, a little more than 112% in my "real money" betting in my Sportmarket My Way -account. Usually, I should win more when selecting fewer bets and varying the stakes according to the Kelly criteria. However, at the end of the season, my ROI in the My Way bets should be around 105%, and my "play money Super Contest" result should be around 55%. But one can always get lucky, as I did in 2016, and then one can beat hundreds of opponents at a 66% result or so. One lucky of the equally good 58% handicappers will do. As my late dear friend, professor William T. Ziemba advised me years ago: "Jorma, just take care, that the means of distribution is, where you want. The tails you cannot help. They take care of themselves."

So the current NFL season has been good in the individual bets, but now with my big Super Bowl bet Baltimore Ravens at 17 to one. The Ravens have looked brilliant as their best, but they have given away three games, which were already "won". I still believe Baltimore will reach the playoffs comfortably and then concentrate better. However, I had believed that I could have started to lay off small parts of my Ravens bets already now with a 4-2 record.

As hedges, I had picked 40-1 Philadelphia Eagles, 15-1 San Francisco 49ers, and 12-1 LA Rams from the NFC side - with much smaller stakes than my prime bet on Baltimore. I am happy with my hedges - especially when San Francisco now bought Christian Mc Caffrey to their team. For me, the running backs are the team's soul, and the betting market doesn't value them as much as the quarterbacks.

The Superbowl bets are there to be hedged. With Sportmarket, that can be done with a good value and smoothly - even in live betting.


Welcome to follow - or join - My Way!

What is "My Way"?

I designated an account in Sportmarket ear-marked only for this project. I deposited there €800 + €800 in February and then €800 every month. I started to bet in the same very defensive, risk-averse way as I did when I was young. I write regular blogs on our web page www.esbc.fi, where I follow, how this experiment/mission/challenge progresses. I call this mission MyWay.

Follow MyWay! It is not only my twists and turns in this mission, not only nostalgia from my first way towards my first million. You'll learn a lot about betting strategies, my way of thinking and working, risk management, war stories" and nostalgia. Occasionally you'll learn how to win +EV equity in upcoming sporting events for free.

Welcome to join me in MyWay!

ESBC:n kanssa enemmän iloa vedonlyönnistä

ESBC:n voittamisen resepti perustuu Suomen tunnetuimman vedonlyöntisijoittajan Jorma Vuoksenmaan tutkimustuloksiin ja yli 30 voitollisen vuoden kokemukseen vedonlyönnistä. Jorma Vuoksenmaa ja ESBC:n työntekijät pelaavat samaan analyysiin perustuen samoja kohteita kuin asiakkaamme.

ESBC:n Internet-sivustolta peliharrastajat ja -sijoittajat saavat päivittäin ajankohtaiset sijoitusneuvot Pitkävetoon, Monivetoon, hevospeleihin ja Internet-vedonlyöntiin. ESBC ylläpitää kykyään parantaa asiakkaittensa menestystä yliopistotasoisella tutkimuksella pelisijoittamisesta ja urheilusta.

 

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