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My Way
My way towards NFL-playoffs winnings
Years go by, but something is constant: I win money in the NFL postseason - with the very same strategies.
In the playoffs, I trade the Super Bowl winner market at the exchanges. Quite often, I end up being a guaranteed winner already before the coin toss of the Super Bowl. The key is to bet on the underestimated teams and lay the overrated ones, but by taking the seedings strongly into consideration.
When one trades at the exchanges, one pays the commission only for the net profit after everything is clear in February. So an alert and smart bettor gets many bets at a meager cost.
However, this year the biggest share of my action will probably be in the bets on the individual games. The commissions one pays to Sportmarket are low compared to the advantage of choosing the market, handicap, and bookmaker offering the best value. One can get the advantage of the extra information and odds inefficiencies in betting in running.
The general rule is to bet the favorites on the money line - even with the very skinny-looking odds and take the underdogs with the plus points in handicaps. The nature of postseason football makes it actually possible that the favorite on the money line and the underdog with the points are both slightly profitable when the top prices Sportmarket finds somewhere in the betting universe are exploited. A prime example of this is the wild-card weekend Saturday game between San Francisco Forty Niners and Seattle Seahawks.
I was slightly more optimistic than the betting market in San Francisco already before the season. I liked their coaching and defense. Trading in Christian McCaffrey made the team complete. Even generally, I like the teams with the good running game more than the market, and McCaffrey is an excellent, versatile Running Back. I have ante-post bets on San Francisco, and I might even add on them, but for sure, I'll bet on San Francisco at 1.22x versus Seattle. The class difference between the two teams is huge, and in the do-or-die games, the stronger ones don't waste their superiority for laziness or bad preparations. That being said, Seattle is +10 at 1.92x might be a profitable bet, too, and at least as a balancer for a good overall San Francisco long position, a Seahawks bet is useful. If San Francisco clinches their win early, they will not waste their energy or risk injuries before the next playoff round by running up the score.
I had possibly one of my best pre-season bets in my life on the Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl at the odds 18x. Baltimore has strong deference, and Lamar Jackson is exactly the type of quarterback I like. But to my horror, he has now been off the field since the fourth of December with a knee injury, which seems to be hard to heal. To complete my nightmare, even Baltimore's second QP choice Tyler Huntley has had injury problems. Huntley couldn't play and replace Jackson last weekend when Baltimore lost (along with my Ravens +10 bets) against that very same Cincinnati. The third choice Anthony Brown threw two interceptions and fumbled once, and I remain, in my opinion, that Baltimore is a better team than Cincinnati when the healthy teams play with full cylinders. Ravens have namely thrown away at least two "clinched" games this season. Still, with that and the devastating injury luck, they won ten regular season matches. Moments ago, on Thursday at 11.30 AM Eastern time, I bet Baltimore +10. Sportmarket found me somewhere the odds 1.82x.
Lamar Jackson couldn't train on Wednesday. The market seemingly believes that he will not play and that Huntley might be at least handicapped by his sore shoulder. The bettors are scared that the inexperienced third choice Anthony Brown will reappear and give away as many turnovers as in his NFL-debut a week ago.
To put it short, all the negatives are already counted into the Baltimore odds. With any news, the Ravens odds and handicaps will drop. Ravens might have kept Lamar Jackson out of public practices to mislead Cincinnati to believe, that Jackson will not play. If they announce Jackson as a starter, I can close my position with a good profit or (probably) an option to gamble with my beloved Ravens. Even in the live markets I can adjust my position according to what I see, and Sportmarket gives me a slight extra edge with those extra fractions it finds me from the hectic live market.
Welcome to follow - or join - My Way!
What is "My Way"?
I designated an account in Sportmarket earmarked only for this project. I deposited there €800 + €800 in February 2022 and then €800 every month. I started to bet in the same very defensive, risk-averse way as I did when I was young. I write regular blogs on our web page www.esbc.fi, where I follow how this experiment/mission/challenge progresses. I call this mission MyWay.
Follow MyWay! It is not only my twists and turns in this mission, not only nostalgia from my first way towards my first million. You'll learn a lot about betting strategies, my way of thinking and working, risk management, war stories" and nostalgia. Occasionally you'll learn how to win +EV equity in upcoming sporting events for free.
Welcome to join me in MyWay!
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