My Way: NFL ROI +17 per bet. Good new one tonight
One and a half weeks ago I told in this My Way blog, how Sportmarket has helped me to one of my best NFL betting seasons this autumn. I revealed to everybody one of my biggest bets for the season, Cleveland Browns +3½ points. The Browns beat easily Cincinnati Bengals, and I was delighted to read, that many of my readers had backed Cleveland on Moneyline, without the handicap points, which were not needed this time.
Thank you all for your polite, nice feedback, and remember, that our lucky run doesn't last forever, even if I have reasons to believe, that we should have a slight edge on our NFL betting. We even bear the risk of sinking into minus before the Super Bowl, in that case facing my first losing year in my NFL betting since 1986.
However, so far in this season, the 161 NFL bets, which I have placed via Sportmarket in the MyWay project, have returned 17% net profit per bet. I have been very lucky, but Sportmarket has been a big extra help for me now during this first autumn of our co-operation.
As an additional control of my accuracy in the NFL-betting, I make five picks each week as in the legendary Las Vegas NFL Super Contest. I didn't travel to Las Vegas and pay for an agent this year, as I did in 2017, but I try to make the five weekly picks very seriously in order to be able to compare myself with the hundreds of top-of-the-world bettors willing to risk $1000 for the buy-in.
Now, after the nine first weeks (half of the season), I'll have 26,5 correct out of 45 picks. That makes my strike rate for the whole season 59%. That would mean a 115% payback for my level stake bets made in a typical price Sportmarket can find me. I keep following this "Super Contest" -track and -payback because it gives me a new angle to judge my possible edge (and accordingly the correct risk level in staking) in the NFL-betting.
An average bettor or a random picker should have 50% correct picks vs. the Las Vegas line ie. 22,5 so far. My four additional hits don't verify anything, but they give an extra hint, that I should continue betting NFL, and hopefully keep winning as I have done since 1986.
Tonight I try with Carolina Panthers. Everything is in turmoil in the team. Defensive coaches are fired, and players are benched without a clear plan. Big pressures from the fans and from the media accumulate, minimizing the "home advantage". However, Atlanta is not that much better, and when Sportmarket found me Carolina +3 points at 1.87x, I had to make a bet against my principles (Atlanta has a better running game and rush defense). It is all about the prices. I would have preferred +3½ with lower odds, but the Sportmarket software told me, that now +3 was a better choice, even if the field goal loss and push would frustrate me.
This bet is decent, but not as profitable and promising as our Cleveland bet 10 days ago.
On Sunday, there is a risk, that I need to keep pushing my head against the wall stubbornly with LA Rams. I have lost money with the Rams. Still, the team has the capacity for better performance, and I should leave my emotions out of my investment decisions.
Welcome to follow - or join - My Way!
What is "My Way"?
I designated an account in Sportmarket earmarked only for this project. I deposited there €800 + €800 in February and then €800 every month. I started to bet in the same very defensive, risk-averse way as I did when I was young. I write regular blogs on our web page www.esbc.fi, where I follow how this experiment/mission/challenge progresses. I call this mission MyWay.
Follow MyWay! It is not only my twists and turns in this mission, not only nostalgia from my first way towards my first million. You'll learn a lot about betting strategies, my way of thinking and working, risk management, war stories" and nostalgia. Occasionally you'll learn how to win +EV equity in upcoming sporting events for free.
Welcome to join me in MyWay!