I took the profits and freedom
Moments ago, on Tuesday afternoon, the 12th of December, I closed my "to win the World Cup" -positions. Now the tournament is guaranteed to be profitable for me. Since the World Cup in 1986, I have lost only once in My Way as a betting professional. In the Euro 1996, the Chech republic beat my idea-teams Portugal and France, and I lost deservedly. In the upcoming big tournaments, I recouped my money - and much more.
My reason for taking the profits was not to protect my remarkable track record in the big tournaments. I simply calculated that France, which was underestimated pre-tournament, is overestimated now before the semi-final.
I had bet France at prices 8x, 8.75x, and 9x. Some of the bets were each way, which would return the place part of my bet with odds 4.5x in the case France lost the final. Today I could lay off a large portion of my position at 2.20x. My separate trading position in the World Cup was a guaranteed winner already earlier.
France didn't shine against England. According to the impression I got watching the game and the most meaningful metrics, France did not deserve to eliminate England. I have dropped my power rating on France back to the level they started the tournament.
And Morocco is better than the majority expected. I liked Morocco more than the betting market already pre-tournament and had bet correlated multiples on Morocco to win two or three games. I was one goal away from a big killing, but Morocco had to settle for a 0-0 draw against Croatia, even if they won my Xg-count.
So in these circumstances, I want to have my money in cash, not riding on France with the risk of my team getting eliminated against a solid, strong, counter-attacking Morocco. I know Morocco has injury worries and that Walid Cheddira has been suspended, but the prices have overreacted to everything. France is not 80% sure to progress, as the implied probabilities from the Sportmarket world top match odds would suggest. After cashing out, I have the full freedom to return to my France position if the new information and prices call for it. Sportmarket allows me to choose the optimal betting market, the best odds in the world, and the timing for my trade.
The huge profits from my France trade covered easily my losses for big, unlucky "tournament total goals under 164½" -bet. I count that bet lost in my calculations already, even if I could miraculously win it by seeing only six goals in the semifinals and finals. My other two critical bets for the tournament were "Senegal to go to the knockout stage" and the really good Sharpe position "either one or both, Uruguay and Ghana to go to the knockout stage". One of these won, and the other lost.
The normal trading in individual matches has been even more profitable for me in this tournament than my previous success stories in the past decades. In this World Cup, I have placed 148 pre-match bets. They have returned 24,24% net profit per bet! Those extra fractions Sportmarket finds in the bets really make a difference!
Welcome to follow - or join - My Way!
What is "My Way"?
I designated an account in Sportmarket earmarked only for this project. I deposited there €800 + €800 in February and then €800 every month. I started to bet in the same very defensive, risk-averse way as I did when I was young. I write regular blogs on our web page www.esbc.fi, where I follow how this experiment/mission/challenge progresses. I call this mission MyWay.
Follow MyWay! It is not only my twists and turns in this mission, not only nostalgia from my first way towards my first million. You'll learn much about betting strategies, my thinking and working, risk management, war stories" and nostalgia. Occasionally you'll learn how to win +EV equity in upcoming sporting events for free.
Welcome to join me in MyWay!