Kategoria:
My Way
Germany is a rotten country
"Saksa on paska maa" (ie. Garmany is a rotten country), said the Seppo Räty, the Finnish javelin world champion after he got eliminated from the world championships in Stuttgart in 1993 as a favorite. The short-worded but straight-talking legend popped into my mind after I had lost a lot in the second week in a row in the German Bundesliga.
Apart from being "wrong" with the majority of my opinions, the "Torefest" in the Saturday games hurt me a lot. 26 goals in six matches are not welcomed for bets on under. Of course, I have 35 years of data on German football, and I am fully aware of the goals per match average of around three goals. But once again the general betting public overweighted the obvious common knowledge and the confirmation for the "bet over in Bundesliga" -theory, which the opening round 33 goals in 9 games gave.
In the live betting, the punters got even crazier. When more and more goals were scored, the public bet more and more on overs. The odds for under jumped to very profitable levels in many games. So I was forced to snap the value of the unders. But unfortunately for me, the crowd got even more late goals to celebrate, and I lost almost all of my Saturday Bundesliga bets.
I could have even been worse. Frankfurt got a "theatrical" injury time penalty against Hertha Berlin, and the 3-2 goal for Eintracht would have increased my daily losses by 50%. For once, I gained from the (justified) VAR-ruling, and the penalty decision was overruled.
The second bloody Saturday in a row was expensive enough even without Frankfurt. Still, it was probably just another random occurrence, and when things get normal, I'll earn a lot with the unders, remaining score lines in live betting, and my thoughtfully researched idea teams. But, to be honest, in my frustrated and mellow feelings on a darkening August night, I couldn't help thinking: "What about if German football is a bad market to bet on?". What about if Germany really is a rotten country, "paska maa" for me as my fellow Finn, the legendary Seppo Räty?
It happens namely to be the case, that in the last five years I have placed over four hundred bets in the German Bundesliga, and I have lost money. In all other four big European football leagues, I have made a profit. Could there be a reason for that?
I hear already the crowds shouting: "Vuoksenmaa doesn't know, which teams in Germany have the ""tradition"", ""geist"" and ""identity"". The team budgets and those damned XGs doesn't mean anything!"
Well, could be. I have a very dogmatic and scientific approach to my betting. I might very mildly react to some "weak signals" about the time spirit, the fan support, media pressures, organization values (often correlated to tradition), and even to "identity", if it shows on the pitch in a clear and strict team structure. But in calculating my probability estimates, the biggest weights are on meaningful and measurable numerical information. Our power ratings, player evaluations, and other key factors are in Germany as strong and researched as elsewhere.
However, it is very important not to lose money on bets, which one believes are profitable, but which actually are minus EV (expected value). Therefore already today I have researched a lot, about what is common for those winning and losing German bets. I didn't find anything special.
Finding Sportmarket was one of the most important milestones in my 45 years long betting career. It is not only the best odds in the world or the easiness of getting the money in fast and guaranteed - the Sportmarket's statistical tools are a great tool for educating oneself towards a world-class bettor.
On the Sportmarket site, one can find an "analytics"-page. There one can find, what kind of returns one has achieved from different markets, leagues, bet types, etc. One can even download the information easily to the database on one's own and then make even more detailed and deep analyses. We have a good database ourselves at European Sports Betting Consultants, but with Sportmarket we are even stronger - as we are on many other parts of the sports betting investing.
What is "My Way"?
I designated an account in Sportmarket ear-marked only for this project. I deposited there €800 + €800 in February and then €800 every month. I started to bet in the same very defensive, risk-averse way as I did when I was young. I write regular blogs on our web page www.esbc.fi, where I follow, how this experiment/mission/challenge progresses. I call this mission MyWay.
Follow MyWay! It is not only my twists and turns in this mission, not only nostalgia from my first way towards my first million. You'll learn a lot about betting strategies, my way of thinking and working, risk management, war stories" and nostalgia. Occasionally you'll learn how to win +EV equity in upcoming sporting events for free.
Welcome to join me in MyWay!
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