Cincinnati or Cleveland? To new highs with NFL
My betting capital in the Sportmarket My Way project reached a new all-time-high o(today) on Monday the 31st of October.
After a relatively moderate autumn, we got lucky again in the Sunday NFL. NHL and the Finnish Liiga -hockey have been OK, too. Now my 5664 bets in the My Way project have returned a 3% net profit per bet on average.
In the My Way project, I have tried to bet in a similar style as I did 30 years ago when I accumulated my capital from hundreds to one million. Now I can, of course, place more bets more conveniently and with far better odds with the help Sportmarket gives me, but I have not gone overly wild with my staking, even with the most profitable bets.
However, now I am raising my risk levels cautiously and staking in the NFL American Football. I am fully aware that my current ROI of 10% net profit per bet is not sustainable when the number of bets increases from 136 we are tonight after the Cleveland - Cincinnati bets. And I know that by increasing the stakes, I even bear the risk of sinking into minus before the Super Bowl, facing my first losing year in my NFL betting since 1986.
It might feel contra-intuitive and psychologically demanding to raise the stakes when winning and protecting the capital by cutting down the bets during an unlucky run. But it would be very illogical not to raise the stakes with our 10% per bet ROI, with a relatively low variance with about 50% winning bets, and with bigger bets yielding better ROI than the smaller ones so far. NFL has been the best league for me regarding the ROI per match. That is not necessarily coincidental.
In the fall of 2015, I beat over a hundred of Europe's best NFL bettors in the Spreadex Super Challenge betting competition. I called right 66% of the 85 NFL regular season games (five each week), so the first prize of £14.000 came to me "deservedly". The Spreadex-competition on the Internet doesn't exist any longer, and I had no time to travel to Las Vegas to register for the original Las Vegas NFL Super Contest this year, but out of curiosity, and to have more interest in extra matches every week, I started making five NFL picks each week in my own "Super Contest" -against myself. It is actually a way to test if one can value, how big the edge is in different games.
Yesterday I was (again) very lucky. New Orleans, who have had very bad luck with turnover won 25-0, and I did not need the handicap points I received. The same happened with Denver. Tennessee beat easily the lowly Houston as only narrow favorites. So all my major bets hit. The next biggest, Indianapolis lost in a heartbreaking fashion, when Washington managed to make an unbelievable whole field, one-minute comeback drive in dying seconds.
Now, after the eight first weeks, I'll have 23,5 correct out of 40 picks, if Cleveland covers with three points against Cincinnati tonight. That would make my strike rate for the whole season 58,5%. That would mean a 114% payback for my level stake bets made in a typical price Sportmarket can find me. These figures encourage me to raise my NFL stakes. they give another hint of the quality of my selections.
I am fully aware of the injury problems Cleveland has tonight. But Cincinnati cannot field their optimal team either, and plus 3 points is a lot for the home side in a match-up between fairly level teams. The betting public values Cincinnati too high. their Super Bowl appearance last year has strengthened their brand too much. Bengals wee lucky last year. They have certain fundamental problems in their team and will regress from last year.
Actually, when writing this, I discovered from Sportmarket, that 1.89x on Cleveland +3½ points was available and I bet more. That will make my overall risk in the game to be one of the highest this autumn, but a man has to do, what he has to do. I have now revealed the reasons, why I have raised my NFL stakes.
The traditionalists say, that it is dangerous to bet against the line movements, but I disagree in these situations, one knows, what the market misunderstands or overweighs.
Welcome to follow - or join - My Way!
What is "My Way"?
I designated an account in Sportmarket earmarked only for this project. I deposited there €800 + €800 in February and then €800 every month. I started to bet in the same very defensive, risk-averse way as I did when I was young. I write regular blogs on our web page www.esbc.fi, where I follow how this experiment/mission/challenge progresses. I call this mission MyWay.
Follow MyWay! It is not only my twists and turns in this mission, not only nostalgia from my first way towards my first million. You'll learn a lot about betting strategies, my way of thinking and working, risk management, war stories" and nostalgia. Occasionally you'll learn how to win +EV equity in upcoming sporting events for free.
Welcome to join me in MyWay!